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Gehlen was Hitler’s super spy for Russia Intelligence. Second in command at the DOJ Rosenstein handles Russian Intelligence.
Is it me? They sure look like family.
General Gehlen and Rosenstein
Buygold @ 16:30 re your Gundlach is a sharp cookie. Remember Our Old Thoughts About GLD??
He mentioned the danger of “Passive Investing” in other words ETFs. It was predicted long ago that ETFs drive prices higher or lower that normal. Remember The late 2015 run up with Gold? $1,060 to near $1400 in six months? Because of GLD ETF? Gold run-up upper left 2016. Sometimes ETFs don’t do what they are supposed to. Remember that Nat Gas fiasco? I think Nat gas was up and the ETF went down. Often there are warnings about that stating use for daily or short term only.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m1
Story below:
The Hidden Index Bubble. As passive indexing grows, so do the risks — especially for the biggest stocks.
Investors around the world are flocking to passively managed funds. They do not trust that active funds — that is, stock-pickers — can get them better returns, especially after fees are accounted for.
The arguments for passive investing have been well-documented, and these investors are smart to listen to them. After all, even Warren Buffett promotes passive investing in low-cost index funds (perhaps the ultimate example of “do as I say, not as I do” in the investing world).
From 2009 to today, passive investing’s share of assets under management in U.S. funds has increased from about 20% to 40%. In dollar terms, the amounts are staggering. Vanguard, the standard-bearer of passive investing, collected an astonishing $1 billion for each day of 2017, with 90% of net inflows directed to passive funds.
Avoiding fees, tracking the market, and even the “set it and forget it” investing style have their merits, especially for individual investors. But when hordes of investors pursue the same endgame, what does it mean for the market?
Research has shown that the repercussions of such a profound shift could be dramatic — and even detrimental to long-term returns. Here’s why.
What “blind money” means
When active managers select stocks for a fund, they are essentially foraging for companies that will make good investments. If the stock market were a pumpkin patch, they’d be using the best pumpkin-picking strategy they know. This would be different from the strategies of other pumpkin-pickers, whose strategies in turn would be different from the next ones’. In other words, every fund manager has a unique approach to searching for the best investments available.
Passive investing is different. There is no manager. The money invested in a passive index fund is allocated to match the allocation of whichever index it tracks. That means passive investing is done “blindly”: Index funds simply imitate their indexes’ every move, with no input from professional stock-pickers.
The most well-known indexes are weighted based on the size — i.e., the market capitalization — of the companies within. That includes the most commonly tracked index, the S&P 500, which is essentially a collection of the 500 largest publicly traded U.S. companies as measured by market cap (some exceptions apply). The largest companies, then, receive the most investment when money flows into passive investments.
That money acts like water on the pumpkin patch. Every time money flows from active to passive management, it’s as though water is flowing to the biggest pumpkins (i.e., holdings) by virtue of their size. And then, as a consequence of the new money, the big get bigger.
If this sounds peculiar, or even illogical, that’s because it is. But it’s how passive indexing works, and it’s happening because investors have grown weary of the alternative: Active management often comes with over sized fees and under performance.
The distorting power of passive investing
Passive indexing, then, is in vogue in recent years. Its increasing popularity adds incrementally to the market caps of all companies in the index — but even more so to the largest ones. And this compounds over time. Ultimately, it can create distortions that will have consequences for investors.
Some of the most relevant research on this topic was published earlier this year by the investment advisor Semper Augustus. While most investors were rejoicing in the performance of indexes during 2017, Semper Augustus looked under the hood to see what was really happening. What the firm found is remarkable.
First off, the big are definitely getting bigger. In the case of the S&P 500, here’s a look at what percentage of the index is made up by the largest five, 10, and 25 companies, respectively:
Rest of story:
https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2018/06/24/the-hidden-index-bubble.aspx
Maddog
Yeah, Gundlach is a sharp cookie.
This Fed meeting may be pretty significant for future direction. I’m going to lighten up a little going in, but if they wobble at all on future hikes, we could see a pretty good move higher. Hope so.
only the scum could rally the Dow 150 points on nothing.
Just how much of the US SM, does the scum have in that bottom draw.
Buygold
I do think Gundlach is one of the sharpest tools in the shed.
Tks for pointing him out.
Re miners…only baby steps so far, like there really not sure….
Aden sisters say if 1220 holds we can test 1272, if that goes 1370 next tgt !!!!
Maya
Something funny happened a work yesterday Remember when I said was worried if the kids locked me out of my phone if I let them watch YouTube on it. Someone heading into work tried to call me but one of the kids had my phone. It had options and one said “I’m on my way.” The child who couldn’t read pushed that option. That sent a panic so she tried to call someone else couldn’t get a answer. When I finally talked to her she’s like where were you! I’m like what are you talking about. She told me about the message then after that just heard mumbling ” by the kid.” She thought something happened to me. Then I had to check who else the child messaged.
How long has it been
since we’ve seen the pm sector do well when the SM got clobbered?
2001-02′?
Alex
Thanks sounds beautiful. Yes I want to see most the places you mentioned. A couple I’m not familiar with. I want to see Pompeii too. One being in a bad quake but without the fire except for things that exploded and two science and history. I’m aware the actual molds of the people aren’t there just copies or so I heard which makes it easier. The old Rome life. They had such a advanced system so long ago even bathrooms. They channeled water around the city and had fountains where all people can get water. Things I’m sure we all learned from them.
At least their new president is doing something about the migrant invasion.
Maybe I’ll make Christian pamphlets for them so if they hand me one I can hand them one on our profit back. Maybe Mathew 24. As one of my old friends said I just can’t help not getting into things.
Mr. Copper
I guess the thing is I haven’t seen a significant rally in the metals without seeing the early charge being led by the miners.
One thing for sure. This SM appears to be in trouble and I hope some of that money coming out makes it into the pm sector.
Buygold @ 14:02 Re HUI
I don’t bother looking at the HUI. Its just a bunch of miners. They ALL need or run with spot Gold. So just read the gold charts. But even that is not productive because the news the fed, dollar and other variables lead the gold price. I just bo with what I think and instinct.
My view. The 2001 gold Bull market run of 17% apy for 12 years had a correction and bottomed in late 2015. Bull resumed after that, but not obvious with such big drops along the way. Higher lows three of them, for three years now.
Like Trump said from the start, he inherited a mess, but must have meant a coming mess. His/they words and actions simply delayed an approaching reality. In general the entire work force in under paid making the gov’t under paid, note budget deficits and national debt.
After the first depression the administration acted as a labor union for its subjects or citizens. Forcing various businesses to pay the right price for labor. After a while the businesses took over the gov’t and STOPPED acting as a “union” to protect decent wages. You don’t put Dracula in charge of the blood bank.
At this point in time it looks and sounds like the businesses are now working to replenish non union wages for their own benefit and gov’t benefit. Businessman “BAG LIMITS” now on harvesting profits from the masses.
HUI Components:
Maddog, Mr. Copper
Maddog – I do think Gundlach is one of the sharpest tools in the shed.
Mr. Copper – we have a long way to go. We’ve yet to see the HUI even challenge the breakdown point of 165 HUI. Maybe we’re seeing start of a move higher now, but there’s a lot of proving to be done.
Buygold @ 12:41 re your fits and starts?
I think we are way way over done on fits and starts. We haven’t seen such Chinese water torture in many many years. This gold recovery that started in late 2015 is the worst three years of fits and starts in my memory.
The first half of 2016 was phenomenal. $2 miners going to $22 and better. The Stock Market 2015 into 2016 was topping and rolling over. It was a no brainer very late correction starting. Then TPTB wheeled out Trump with tons of psychological positive news and they bought three more boom years for them and three more years of annoying us.
Check out dow chart rolling over 2015 to 2016.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=m1
Well it seems the 1240 seller has gone home….what do we have at 1250… still looking better
Buygold
Yr mate Grundlach is looking smart ….again.
Goldie – The best weight loss exercise :
Push-aways !
Yes , I have been in Italy on several occasions , In fact , I would rather see Rome (antiquities , Colliseum , Forum , etc., the catacombs out along the Appian Way and the Vatican museum , lots of other things , too), or Venice (canals and San Marco square) , or Florence (art and architecture) than Paris , in that order . But it has been twenty years since I was last there . I have your email address and will send particulars . Food is excellent, maybe the best cooking is in Bologna in the north .
One place not to miss in my view , is Villa d’Este which you can get to by bus from Rome (1/2 hour trip ?) . It is a former cardinal’s palace in Tivoli , with a garden full of sculptures fed by artesian wells up in the hills . See it late afternoon close to sunset . After sunset it is lit up dramatically , so you want to see it in both types of light .
I visited before the influx of ‘immigrants’ from across the Mediterranean , so things may have changed drastically .
The reaction to what the Fed does Wednesday
should be really interesting.
This is turning out to be a damn good day so far.
Who would have thought?
Mr. Copper
It does feel like the shares are being accumulated. No doubt there will be fits and starts.
Moggy
I didn’t have much time to write yesterday but seems that people then didn’t figure we’d have a government that would allow people to come in to take advantage of welfare systems or crime, being taught what to say like claiming asilum.
Plus Europe they can’t deport children so adult men claiming their teens and going to school with children. They know they can get away with staying no matter what they do. Word gets out how to game the system.
I’m sure their parents not thrilled with that and at least one rape by a immigrant because of allowing that in a school bathroom.
Europe appears even worse except some countries putting their foot down.
They act like crimes of violence, rape theft, lying to get asilum are not considered for deportation and should be included.
Alex
While your at it have you spent any time in Italy. It all looks good to me. Both places I don’t think I could eat all that food at once although might be fun trying. These days restaurants even here super-sizing, you gotta push yourself away from the table.
Maya
I don’t know how your plumbing works but your lucky when that quake hit it didn’t disrupt the plumbing and ability to get water. Even with water catchment you should of seen the pools. Water going everywhere. I wonder if those things could collapse?
Good thing if all else fails you can collect water and have lots of leaves.
But, but aren’t they doing “God’s Work?”
Malaysia Files Criminal Fraud Charges Against Goldman Sachs
In an unprecedented move that possibly foreshadows similar charges from the US DOJ – and lots of headaches for the “recently retired” Lloyd Blankfein – the Malaysian attorney general has filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs – targeting two of the investment bank’s Asian subsidiaries and two former Goldman bankers who have already been charged by the US (former Southeast Asia head Tim Leissner and banker Roger Ng) and accusing the investment bank of violating the country’s securities laws by lying in bond agreements for three deals that raised $6.5 billion for 1MDB, a Malaysian sovereign wealth fund formed under former Prime Minister Najib Razak that US authorities believe was looted for upwards of $4 billion by corrupt bankers and officials.