Loading ...The moment of truth in the stock market and the national and world economy will soon be upon us. The tax selling season is now over but the tradional Santa Claus rally didn’t come this year.
Contra seasonal moves many times indicate a change in long term trends. The democrats talk a good talk but never seem to walk the walk. My crystal ball tells me they will bottleneck the process in Washington DC and blame Trump every step of the way when things go wrong.
2019 may be the year we have all been waiting for. Stagflation, deflation, whatever is coming soon. Sales tax receipts in Oklahoma have been falling for the last four months in the middle of an oil boom. Upper end houses don’t even get lookers.
$70.bbl is the break even for oil companies. At $46.00bbl, leases stop. Acquired leases are drilled and produced and then they wait. Everyone in exploration is laid off until price recovery. Then the spiral begins. Formerly high paid workers are now jobless and houses and auto are foreclosed. Divorce rate triples. Another oil bust in the patch.
Attempts to inflate the debt away has failed to this point. We are at 2008 again. National, corporate, and individual debt has saturated the world with debt that can’t be serviced. Will we get another band aid? Will the Democrats back Trump into a corner and his response be to curtail the money supply? Ever increasing amounts of money are necessary just to stay afloat.
Beware the coming year my friends. Remember, more wealth is garnered at the bottom than at the top.
rno