i think you may be right, once the rig begins to lose its grip, the crumbling will compound itself, and the collapse may be fairly abrupt – weeks, not months.
a couple questions –
- timing? i see no basis for forecasting when it might happen. i gave up on that a while ago.
- collateral damage? events do not happen in a vacuum. how much other chaos/disorder will accompany the collapse of the rig? 2-a. will the collapse of the rig be the trigger for other events, or vice versa? we live in interesting times.