Loading ...When I saw close to 3% on 10 year rates, and the “news” or consensus, or widely held opinion, said rates were going higher. I said to myself, bull shit they are too high and going lower. They got up to 3.2% first. I think we all here agreed on lower rates and it happened. (after 3.2% on Nov ’18)
So now here we are with 2.02%, a 37% decline, and all the “news” or consensus, or widely held opinions are suggesting lower, after we already GOT lower but can get a little lower. (By the time the people acknowledge a trend its often over)
Now here’s what I think MIGHT happen going forward. If Gold keeps going up like it has been, the Fed might hold off lowering next meeting to avoid “helping” gold. In fact if Gold gets high enough fast enough, they might even raise rates sparingly. (fear to kill the markets) But not enough to slow gold down. In other words, behind the curve along the way.
We’ve all seen the bozos do it all thru the 1970s. Gold and rates were up together for 10 years (’71-’81)because they were too “chicken” to boldly raise them. Eventually the creep up to 18% CDs and 21% prime finally kicked Golds ass. The assholes hurt auto and home sales for 10 years. And recession in around 1980. After June ’82 (dow at 796) they started dropping rates.
If they keep dropping rates and ignore gold trending higher? That would be a very serious and strange situation.