Loading ...Maddog @ 16:25
“Trump to unleash Hell”
On the bright side maybe the Iranians will be able to receive enough income so that they don’t feel so desperate as to do something stupid like close the Straits.
Looks like COT impact suspended for now,,,
[anybody. remember 5 or 6 weeks ago-maybe longer-we had a couple of super bullish. COT reports–we got all bulled up and nothing happened? This 2 week
rally. took place in spite of horrific COTs…makes ya wonder bout their value…they caused. a lot of traders to miss out–and today we have another bearish one]
goldielocks @ 15:20
Absurd ain’t it! At least it’s gonna cost the Demos. Not many Americans as looney as those candidates!
To put it into perspective
Where the Hell is the SEC ?
No coordinated manipulation here folks …just move on
Apologies for the fuzzy blowup .
This is the Kitco three day graph for gold at the close (17:00 EDT) …all within pennies of each other, on days when when the swings were of the order of tens of dollars intraday .
Credit Suisse. isn’t. some nut job-perma-bull gold site…at least the last time I checked
Credit Suisse: Gold May Retest Record High of $1,921
28, June
“Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,” according to David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse.
Gold has established a multiyear base that could provide the platform for a “significant and long- lasting rally” for gold, he said. We concur with this view and indeed are more bullish as we see gold going to well over $3,000/oz in the long term
Gold traders will be reluctant to go short today due to the scale of risks ahead of the likely Trump and Xi talks. Indeed some may move to cover their short positions as if there is no progress in ending the year-long trade dispute or indeed tensions escalate, gold will likely go higher.
Gold’s mood music has changed radically in the last month and banks, hedge funds and other institutions internationally have become much more bullish on gold. They are revising upwards their price forecasts for gold in 2019 and the coming years.
Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley are two such institution and they see gold having strong gains in the second half of 2019.
Credit Suisse analysts, like us, see gold returning to it’s record nominal high of $1,921/oz.
“Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,” according to David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse.
Gold has established a multiyear base that could provide the platform for a “significant and long- lasting rally” for gold, he said. We concur with this view and indeed are more bullish as we see gold going to well over $3,000/oz in the long term
R6 – The only thing unusual in that report to me was in gold
*The commercials increased their longs by 18,235 contracts
Why?
G & S are either going to get slaughtered or are going to da moon. Which??? I gots no clue!
What a joke-like the only reason. to buy. gold is if the. FED lowers rates 1/4 pt…if not, then sell all your. gold
BULLION VAULT
Combine the prospects of vast central-bank easing with possible fireworks in the Persian Gulf…and you have your answer.
What about the bond market?
The bellwether 10-year Treasury has slipped to 1.98%…its lowest point since the 2016 election.
And so the infinitely expanding gulf between stock market and bond market widens further yet.
One vision is bright, cheery, trusting. The other is dark, dour…and morose.
One of these markets will be proven right. One will be proven wrong.
Our money is on the bond market.
Meantime, it is 10 years into the present economic “expansion.” Next month will establish a record.
How is the business at all sustainable?
Corporations have loaded themselves to the gunwales with cheap debt – cheap debt coming by way of the Federal Reserve.
First-quarter nonfinancial corporate debt increased to $9.93 trillion. That is a record.
And this we learn from the Treasury Department:
Today’s nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest since 1947…when records began.
And here we spot a straw swaying menacingly in the wind…
Fitch informs us nearly $10 billion of high-yield corporate bonds have already defaulted in the second quarter – double the amount of first-quarter defaults.
Warns Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer at SkyBridge Capital:
“Whatever the cause [of the next recession] may be, the acute point of pain will be in corporate credit.”
Depend on it.
Finally we come to the fabulously and grotesquely indebted American consumer.
Total US consumer debt notched $14 trillion in the first quarter – exceeding the roughly $13 trillion before the financial crisis.
Twenty-three per cent of Americans claim that life’s essentials – food, rent, utilities – constitute the bulk of their credit card purchases.
And 60% of Americans hold less than $1000 in savings.
How will they keep up come the next recession? How will they meet their debts?
They already groan under the load – and the economy is still expanding.
Meantime, the cost of a middle-class lifestyle has surged 30% over the past two decades.
But Pew Research reports the average American worker wields no more purchasing power today…than he did 40 years ago.
That is, he has jogged in place 40 years.
The past 10 years of central bank intervention on a grand and heroic scale have worked little benefit.
The coming recession will bring yet more intervention – on an even grander and more heroic scale.
But why should we expect it to yield any difference whatsoever?
For the overall view, we turn to Mr.Sven Henrich:
“The grand central-bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention that have brought you record global debt to the tune of $250 trillion and record wealth inequality are about to embark on a new round…The new global rate-cutting cycle begins anew before the last one ever ended. Brace yourselves, as no one, absolutely no one, can know how this will turn out…
“We are witnessing a historic unraveling here. Everything every central banker has uttered last year was completely wrong. Every projection they made over the last 10 years has been wrong…Why place confidence in people who are staring at the ruins of the policies they unleashed on the world and are about to unleash again?
“All the distortions of 10 years of cheap money, debt, wealth inequality, zombie companies, negative debt…will all be further exacerbated by hapless and scared central bankers whose only solution to failure is to embark on the same cheap money train again. All under the banner to ‘extend the business cycle’ at all costs. Never asking whether they should nor considering the consequences. But since they are not elected by the people and face zero consequences for failure, they don’t have to consider the collateral damage they inflict.”
-END-
Lovin this scenario…
CNBC. evening Brief
Stocks just posted their best first half in more than 20 years. The direction of the second half could be determined in its first week.
The ideal scenario for Wall Street next week would be a trade truce, followed by a TEPID jobs report that allows the Fed to step in, but one that doesn’t indicate a deeper economic slowdown than just a soft patch.
Over the weekend is the big trade meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 summit. Wall Street’s expectations are low, Michael Bloom reports. So a cease- fire in which the U.S. agrees to hold off on additional tariffs and restart talks but keep current tariffs could be enough to get a relief rally.
And then once the G-20 is over, traders will turn their sights to next Friday’s jobs report. As Patti Domm notes, economists expect 158,000 jobs were created in June, up from a disappointing 75,000 in May.
Ironically, traders may want a number weaker than that, giving the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut rates more aggressively (50 basis points?) at its meeting later next month.
Big picture: Diminishing inflation and slower growth have positioned the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates as soon as July to help prolong a record 10-year-old economic expansion and reassure investors, households and businesses.
R6, Maddog – Here’s your COT’s
Just flat crazy – everyone pressing their bets
https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxlf.htm
Maddog – Concur, IMHO a lot of folks are going to get scammed on Crap Coin. It’s a game of musical bag holders. Crazy swings. As longs as I have a few metal coins in my possession, I imagine someone will want to trade either fiat or goods for them.
Not sure I could say the same for Crap Coin.
The Right to VOTE
Democrats clearly show what happens when you give people the right to vote when THEY did nothing to earn it. They try to sell it .They didnt earn it,so they sell it because it has no value to them. Every politician offers them some fantasy if they would sell their vote to him. They offer up a lie and it gets bought . You got what you deserve. ! WE have NEVER really ELECTED a GOOD President .The Good ones were the Founders and those that were accidental Presidents.where somebody got shot or died in office.Some of the Good ones got SHOT in office,,thats gratitude for ya.. Lincoln,kennedy,Reagan ….Its almost impossible to ELECT a good man to office,they dont have the votes.People dont want good Government ,they just want THEIR TURN to pillage the public Treasury . Democracy gives everyone a chance to be a crook ….
COTs–no surprise=Bearish!
The Commitment of Traders Report
Silver
*The large specs increased their long positions by 4,298 contracts and reduced their shorts by 11,751 contracts.
*The commercials reduced their longs by 10,193 contracts and increased their shorts by 8,872 contracts.
*The small specs increased their longs by 1,182 contracts and decreased their shorts by 1,834 contracts.
The commercials are net short 53,552 contracts.
GOLD
*The large specs increased their long positions by 23,475 contracts and reduced their shorts by 8,756 contracts.
*The commercials increased their longs by 18,235 contracts and increased their shorts by 54,530 contracts.
*The small specs increased their longs by 7,073 contracts and decreased their shorts by 3,009 contracts.
The commercials are net short 260,150 contracts.
Just saw the SM ramp job…no shame at all
the last 45 mins of S&P trading, including the after hours, saw it up 18 full points !!!!!!!
The EU is mad, but we all know that….now they have proved it.
Trump To Unleash Hell On Europe: EU Announces Channel To Circumvent SWIFT And Iran Sanctions Is Now Operational
Stand back folks, this will get nasty.
Ipso ps
Did you see them go after price gouging ? Nope they pay for them in one form or another to get elected.
Ipso 9:45 The real NWO of healthcare
Free healthcare for illegals.
I posted this elsewhere today. I also made mention they can’t ” rotate” Supreme Court Judges to suit their partisan unconstitutional aspirations. They have to power to do so and why we have separate powees. They can though get rid of the 9 th circuit court and should.
Health care, ” is now becoming a COERCIVE MONOPOLY
Defined below but FIRST KNOW the bureaucrats allow their “election donors” to drive up health care and medicine costs then use it to lure or force you to to agree to eliminate competition by paying them to run it. Have you noticed they have been driving private Doctors out of business or forcing them to raise fees to cover bureaucrat mandates.This will give them free reign to price gouge and not care about the quality of health care. Then add millions of non citizens getting it for free instead of their own country serving their own citizens. The lines will grow and ERs are already overwhelmed. Consider what’s really going on. Bureaucratic control over your life what your ” allowed to have” and your pocket book for profit..socialism…
A coercive monopoly has very few incentives to keep prices low and may deliberately price gouge consumers by curtailing production.[2]Also, according to economist Murray Rothbard, “a coercive monopolist will tend to perform his service badly and inefficiently.”[3]
Government monopolies
Undisputed examples of coercive monopolies are those that are enforced by law. In a government monopoly, an agency under the direct authority of the government itself holds the monopoly, and the coercive monopoly status is sustained by the enforcement of laws or regulations that ban competition, or reserve exclusive control over factors of production for the government. The state-owned petroleumcompanies that are common in oil-rich developing countries (such as Aramco in Saudi Arabia or PDVSA in Venezuela) are examples of government monopolies created through nationalization of resources and existing firms; the United States Postal Service is an example of a coercive monopoly created through laws that ban potential competitors such as UPS or FedEx from offering competing services (in this case, first-class and standard (formerly called “third-class”) mail delivery).1
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coercive_monopoly
Buygold
What I read last night about Crap Coin tells me that it is a total con job…..that crew behind Tether/Bitfinex stink to high heaven.
The Italian Ceo was trying to raise funds in Bitcoin at one time, he was offering to borrow Bitcoins at 2 % a month and said the reason he could pay so much was because he was involved in a specialist trading system called Arbitrage….which he said meant he bought low and sold Hi !!!!!!!!
Why the authorities allow it is another matter, but if they were doing their job they would at least be warning people against it, as closing it down is nigh impossible, as it would just move to another no regulation country.
Very. true…I am starting to worry…every rally gets reversed
it’s starting to be all too familiar…I’ll be very interested to see what the weekend brings–forget about a crash in gold…if it just goes, like today, back to watching paint dry, I may. just cash out–I’m up about $6K just today..I’ve had a good run if I have to turn in my jersey monday…until then, I gues I;ll keep waving the pop-poms…it’s a bit of fun and keeps me out of mischief…
R6
when guys like Ord come out with predictions like that based on this chart or that chart, as much as I’d love to hope it plays out, I’ve been seeing predictions like that fail for 17 years running.
Now, we’ve had a nice little rally of a $100 that has been stopped dead in its tracks while crap coin has gone from $3K to 13K
Just saying
Maddog–I don’t know how people get conned like that???
All those scams are on TV–especially the Nigerian ones-i can never be scammed…cause…you can never con a con man and you can never hustle a hustler!
This is theft. There is no other word for it.
A Vancouver, Washington, man is suing to get back more than $120,000 in cash that federal agents seized from him at the Portland airport, but authorities said this week that the traveler waited too long and “lawfully forfeited” the money.
“It’s not illegal to have cash,” said Bill Brandt, traveler Steven Williams’ lawyer, according to KOIN. “They just took the money from him and didn’t charge him with a crime.”
The U.S. Attorney for the District of Oregon, representing the federal agents Williams sued in March, asked that a judge dismiss the lawsuit on Monday and wrote in a motion that the “currency was forfeited when he failed to file a timely claim to contest the forfeiture.”
Read more here: https://www.theolympian.com/news/nation-world/national/article232046497.html?#storylink=cpy
R640
Re yr mate and China…Folks can be strange.
I had a hairdresser for maybe 20 yrs…he owned his biz and did OK we used to talk about the world and he had good insight especially into the high st economy, from all his clients and fellow shopkeeps etc.
The one day I called up and a girl answered, I asked to book an appointment, with Geoff and she said, the Biz was bust, closed down…so I had her cut my hair at her home and she told me Geoff had put ALL his money into a Nigerian scam, remortgaged his home and borrowed from his children and of course lost it all !!!!
He’d met the scammer at his gym !!!!!