Loading ...Lets see if this euphoria lasts until morning…when the sober truth of the weekend meeting is realized…as expressed by the likes of Morgan Stanleys’ Chief Economist
Nothing Was Resolved Between The US And China, Meanwhile Global CapEx Has Ground To A Halt
Authored by Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist
And so it has come to pass: The much-anticipated meeting between the US and China is over. While we await further details, here are our reactions and takeaways, as we parse the initial readouts.
This is an uncertain pause – no immediate escalation, but still no clear path towards a comprehensive deal. The US administration has indicated that it will hold off on 25% tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion imports from China. There was also an agreement that both parties will roll back some non-tariff barriers (i.e., restrictions on high-tech exports by US companies) and that China would continue to purchase agricultural products from the US. However,as things stand, we lack clarity on whether real progress was achieved on the sticking points that caused talks to break down in the first place.
Hence, our overarching conclusion is that the developments over the weekend on their own don’t do enough to remove the uncertainty created by trade tensions, which began over a year ago and remain an overhang on corporate confidence and the macro outlook.