Loading ...And again it’s all a bit of a yawn.
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You presume US and allied satellites and drones, ELINT, ESM, missiles and glide-bombs are incapable of locating, targeting to over terrain and navigating into a mine or tunnel? Are you not keeping up? Automated terminal-guided weapons have been able to do this for around 15 years.
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You also make this incredible presumption that a large force will necessarily land and need to do so to make direct observations for targeting. This is not 2005 any more. As I said, the Iranians do not know what they are facing, and apparently nor do you.
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Then you go on about quantitative impacts of tactical Iranian targeting drones? Fine, but maybe you didn’t notice one of the first hints of the sort of counter-drone tech that’s been developed and fielded already? I posted about it last week actually. These are not just on ships they will be on shore in various forms as well, if or when small teams are used.
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Here’s the New Marine Corps Weapon that Just Destroyed an Iranian Drone
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/07/18/heres-new-marine-corps-weapon-just-destroyed-iranian-drone.html
https://images01.military.com/sites/default/files/styles/full/public/2019-07/LMADIS-uss-kearsarge-1800.jpg?itok=6_J-5Jbq
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/07/18/heres-new-marine-corps-weapon-just-destroyed-iranian-drone.html
https://images01.military.com/sites/default/files/styles/full/public/2019-07/LMADIS-uss-kearsarge-1800.jpg?itok=6_J-5Jbq
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Their drones will fail (as will most of their weapons).
You also seem to discount the hundreds of billions invested into advanced missile defenses during the past 30 years and seem to think some glorified SCUDs from Iran (a country with a joke of a navy and a joke of an air force) is going to spell assured doom in battle? You can’t possibly be serious?
Except you are.
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“Massive/diverse geography”, is the first thing that’s apparent the first time you look at a map or Iran, the Zagros Mountains are not a surprise. Nor are they the assured trap you suppose, there is no reason to fight a ground-war when you can simply smash the country from the air, and there is nothing down there that can not be smashed.
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You also don’t seem to grasp the nature of the current generation of sensors, such as 24/7 all-weather IR and SAR 3-D mapping and targeting for instance. Each and every F-35 in theatre can detect any emission or reflection, day or night, and have the systems working right now to track, map and project the paths of origin and the path of trajectory of a ballistic projectile or missile in seconds. You know where it came from within meters, you know where it is, your know where it is going, long before it gets there, and they can feed that data directly to the battle network in near real time.
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What you also don’t seem to grasp is that there’s currently a fully-operational passive space IR detection and targeting sensor constellation overhead, who’s primary function is to do just that. And to pass the information in real-time to intercept radar sensors with which to engage such weapons, and to target their origins, as well as to use learning-systems to track any vehicles (both too and from those sites) and to see where they came from, and where they went to via the record of the imagery and video logs that they produce. they also passively map in 3D and develop target vectors in 3D.
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The Iranians have not got a hope against what they’re facing.
And the notion that AD system pop-ups are not known about is frankly laughable. The Iranians attacked an RQ-4 in peacetime, in international airspace, over international waters because they thought they could get away with it. They haven’t, they just don’t know it yet.
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Instead of gushing over Iran’s hopelessly outmoded tactical options, perhaps you should evaluate the options available to the GCC Arab states alone and then the Israeli’s beyond that, in addition to the US/Allied effort, plus its considerable fighting and data support to those Arab States. Those Arab states alone are capable of dealing with most of what Iran can do. Did you even realize that?
Debunking stuff like that is boring so I’ll reiterate, I’m going to thoroughly enjoy seeing Iran’s military and industrial capacity get hammered, until they resort to much ineffectual bleating then beg the Arabs and Russians to intercede to try to get it stopped.
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Can’t wait to see it. The implication in the aftermath of that will be almost as delicious to savor.