OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Sun Day

Posted by Maya @ 15:22 on July 21, 2019  

sun

 

canary

 

DB will never fail

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:41 on July 21, 2019  
Hey, Mike, ever heard of TBTF?  Well, you just defined it.
DB has been bankrupt for at least a decade but keeps plugging along. Germany will never let it go under as it is Gemany’s only seat at the world banking forum.
There are a couple of Italian banks in much worse shape, that should have gone under again, but they are being propped up.  That’s right, Italian banks.  So no, I don’t see anyone letting DB fail.
Riddle me this, after Lehman collapsed, the central banks came in and had things back up and running within a matter of months…..simply by pampering over everything, and have been doing so ever since……if it is a matter of paper in over problems, what make you think this will ever go down?
Things……or DB……will “collapse” when TPTB are ready for it to collapse so they can rearrange whatever it is they want to rearrange.  But you can bet your ass, it will be a building 7 moment…….controlled demolition

Got gold?

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:34 on July 21, 2019  

A Bank With $49 Trillion In Derivatives Exposure Is Melting Down Before Our Eyes

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The fundamental structural problems that were exposed during 2008 and 2009 were never fixed.  In fact, many would argue that the global financial system is even more vulnerable today than it was back during that time.
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And now it appears that the next “Lehman Brothers moment” may be playing out right in front of our eyes.
Now more than ever, keep a close eye on Deutsche Bank, because it appears that they could be the first really big domino to fall.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-20/bank-49-trillion-derivatives-exposure-melting-down-our-eyes

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The end is nigh, brother, the end is nigh! 
 
World markets are like a pie crust stretched across the roof of a volcano!
 
Fu Manchu is about to pull the lever to the trap door!
 
Warbucks signals the trusty  Punjab to cut the cords of the rope bridge!
 
Grease the skids! Happy tobogganing!

No wonder silver. has been so. strong

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:34 on July 20, 2019  

The Top Three Contrarian Trades From Bank of America

3. The contrarian policy trade: LONG SILVER, long US banks, short US$, short EU bonds & credit…
  • if Fed cuts 50bps + July payroll >300k…Fed dovish policy mistake which will provoke either disorderly rise in government bond yields (1994 analog) or melt-up in stocks; and…
  • if Fed cuts + July payroll -150k…signals onset of recession & policy impotence… sparks disorderly rise in corporate bond spreads & decline in US dollar.
 
A more grandular look reveals frothy inflows to virtually every asset class, including government bond, IG, HY, and EM debt funds, all coinciding with…
  • renewed global monetary ease (18 rate cuts past 6-mths & 720 cuts since Lehman);
  • record $12.9tn of bonds in developed markets with negative yield (25% of total);
  • record 26% of Euro IG corporate bonds with negative yield;
  • record 56% share of global equity market cap from tech-heavy US stock market;
  • extreme relative valuation of “growth” stocks versus “value” stocks, e.g. US growth & EAFE value have price-to-book ratios of 7.7x & 1.1x, and dividend yields of 0.9% & 4.8% respectively.

Got gold? The entire PM sector was on an R640 buy signal Friday-Cause G&S were flat to up a few pennies but all the PM stocks were down4-6-8 percent–I hope Sunday nite

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:04 on July 20, 2019  
gold opens down-just a few-4-6-9 bucks– and PM stocks open down another 2-4-6 percent Monday–that should do it…then a recovery and a solid upday and week.
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To date, the central banks have gotten away with their easy money policies because they could. The day of reckoning could always be pushed further out via a fresh round of liquidity. But, as Brien Lundin says in the video below, the reckoning is “no longer simply inevitable, it is imminent. We are reaching the End of the Road.”
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The Fed and its central banking brethren are now hostage to rock-bottom interest rates. They can’t raise them, less they asphyxiate the remaining shreds of GDP growth around the world. Especially now, when so much of the global economy is fast sliding into recession. Rate hikes at this point would simply crash the system.
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So we can expect more unnatural and desperate measures from here. Fed rate cuts while the stock market is at all-time highs and employment at all-time lows? Sure. Negative interest rates on high yield (i.e. junk) bonds? It’s already happening in Europe.
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But we shouldn’t expect these to work. The system has reached a point of debt exhaustion where each new $trillion stimulates much more weakly than the previous one, and causes the system to become exponentially more unstable.

British scientist who develops melanoma

Posted by overton @ 16:44 on July 20, 2019  

follows thru on the  latest target drug therapies and talks with recent US Nobel prize winner on immunotherapy for treatment of melonama cancers.  I thought he said the British NHS pays for cancer drugs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tybj0oBifs8

 

R6, Maya

Posted by Buygold @ 16:43 on July 20, 2019  

R6 – 450 HUI easy? You’re speaking my language! 🙂 If the world gangs up on us we’ could lose a currency war, although I think the way they are attacking us now is to make the dollar stronger….that appears to be the way to hurt the US economy IMHO.

Maya – gotta watch that Ipso character, even though I’m taxing my brain cells, he’s always pushing to tax whatever is left…:)

 

Got gold? Buygold-as long as u don’t have options, just sit back and relax…harvest the clover–targets are 375 HUI and your 450 HUI–it’s a no brainer…

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:58 on July 20, 2019  

Be the Warren Buffett of gold=don’t sweat the zigs and the zags, Ziggy…”

Global Bubble Watch:

July 14 – Bloomberg (Enda Curran): “Central bankers readying to fight another economic downturn are tossing hand grenades rather than firing bazookas. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stand ready alongside many of their counterparts to cut interest rates to bolster the weakest growth in a decade and lackluster inflation. Yet they have little to work with and, perhaps more worryingly, what they do have lacks potency. Expansions and price growth are flagging despite the easy money already sloshing around and further stimulus may do little to offset the trade war. Structural obstacles such as rising debt burdens, digital disruption and aging populations also work against looser monetary policy. ‘There are limits on what further monetary easing can achieve,’ Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said… ‘You still get benefit from it, but there are limits.’

July 14 – Bloomberg (Enda Curran): “A full-blown currency war where major central banks and governments, including the U.S., deliberately weaken their currencies can no longer be ruled out, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s global economic adviser Joachim Fels wrote… The view is in line with a rising chorus of Wall Street analysts who warn that President Donald Trump’s repeated complaints about the foreign exchange practices of key trading partners heightens the risk of U.S. intervention to weaken the dollar. Fels describes current conditions as a ‘cold currency war, round three’ that is at risk of escalating.”

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2019/07/weekly-commentary-living-life-near-zlb.html

Buygold @ 8:52

Posted by Maya @ 13:30 on July 20, 2019  

A tax on brain cells, you say?  Fortunately I don’t have any of those left.  And Ipso is implementing a tax on his proprietary snoozing, so I gotta pay to take a nap.  So I’m forced to watch the PMs (or is it ‘PMS’)   Watching the tide turn, if ever so slooowly.

The smart money that sees something big coming is the first to move… quietly.  One watches carefully and you can see the stealthy moves.

one of the better podcasts I’ve listened to this year …Michael Oliver

Posted by overton @ 11:38 on July 20, 2019  

He’s been on Eric King a couple of times this year but Eric used him more to push his own KW pm stocks.  In this in depth interview Oliver says that if everyone is using price charts then you’ll get the same results and that’s the reason for his momentum model.  You can get samples of his earlier metals calls with an email.

 

Michael Oliver On Why Momentum Is Truth In Markets

Maddog, R6, Capt., Ipso et. all

Posted by Buygold @ 8:52 on July 20, 2019  

Maddog – thanks for the chart, I’m glad you know how to read that thing, it’s all Greek to me. Hard to see them getting us back to $15 but we’ve seen stranger things.

I’ve been looking at the similarities between this and the last rally R6 pointed out in 2016, which lasted 6-7 months before crashing in on itself. Actually, the beginning of this rally is pretty much the same in terms of speed, at least in gold.

If we get a similar move then it looks like we could get to $16-1700 Gold, 450 HUI – although the HUI is lagging the 2016 move in terms of price vs. Gold. If gold decides to keep up this pace over 6 months, it seems like we could go much higher. I don’t know.

What I don’t know, other than maybe a potential decline in rates, is what’s driving this rally. The dollar still appears to be trending higher and is higher than it was in 2016. So someone appears to be betting on a decline in the USD.

Lastly, GLD appears to have that gap right around $128-130 that could be filled which would take us back to Maddog’s $1380 level. If the rule of “all gaps in pm’s must be filled” comes into play.

OK, so now I have a headache from taxing my last two brain cells. Would love to hear your thoughts.

All this Iran stuff

Posted by Ororeef @ 23:03 on July 19, 2019  

just reminds us of what a HUGH mistake it was to take out Saddam Hussein ! Thanks Hillary !

Those Bastards

Posted by commish @ 18:17 on July 19, 2019  

Whacked POG 20 bucks this afternoon but finished the week at 1425.

COTs

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:04 on July 19, 2019  

The Commitment of Traders Report

Silver

*The large specs increased their long positions by 4,369 contracts and reduced their shorts by 7,905 contracts.

*The commercials reduced their longs by 430 contracts and increased their shorts by 13,650 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 1,329 contracts and decreased their shorts by 477 contracts.

The commercials are net short 59,457 contracts.

Gold

*The large specs increased their long positions by 3,430 contracts and increased their shorts by 2,692 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 11,830 contracts and increased their shorts by 10,822 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 1,758 contracts and increased their shorts by 3,504 contracts.

The commercials are net short 277,408 contracts.

Interesting to see a gold commercial long position be up more than their short one. No surprise in silver and that was before the last 3 days of runs to the upside.

Equisetum @ 14:55

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:23 on July 19, 2019  

In my mind I see the cretin’s computers whirring loudly and starting to smoke … their task becoming impossible!

Can’t come soon enough.

Cheers

Maddog @ 14:41

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:19 on July 19, 2019  

I just hope these days don’t get any more ” interesting.”

I am not for war but there is going to be some kind of response … but what?

It could be that the IRGC is acting without orders.

Top weekend all

Posted by Maddog @ 16:17 on July 19, 2019  

Silver

Now we have a B/O they need to trade $ 15.00 to reverse the chart….notice new tgt $20….i say $21 ….then the Hi’s.

Equisetum – agree

Posted by Buygold @ 15:57 on July 19, 2019  

I think you’re right and it’s something we’ve learned to live with. I am optimistic that this time may be different for us.

We had three great days, and are giving back some today, but not all. The metals are worse than the shares which is a positive in my view.

The biggest plus for us might be that the stock market was unable to hold its gains once again, despite good earnings from Microsoft.

I know, I’m a sucker for pm rallies but I think we’re in good shape and might just be getting started – hopefully.

Have a great weekend!

Oil is up $ 1.20 from the Low…PM’s have barely budged

Posted by Maddog @ 15:54 on July 19, 2019  

R640

Posted by Maddog @ 15:19 on July 19, 2019  

It is certainly all about Op-Ex….but what really puzzles me is that why do they never have to cover their shorts…….even with this news they just keep on selling….wouldn’t put it past the scum just taking the trades and slinging them into that bottomless pit of shorts.

In any other mkt, the equivalent news on a day when the granters have butchered loads of calls, getting a piece of news like that would be the ultimate nightmare, as you’d have to cover yr shorts and that would trigger 1 for 1 Delta buying that fed on itself…in a word you’d be ‘effed senseless.

CDE’s RSI yesterday was 72–it’s now 59…

Posted by Richard640 @ 15:08 on July 19, 2019  

This news out today:

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cde

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in CDE. Norges Bank acquired a new stake in Coeur Mining during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $7,183,000. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP raised its stake in Coeur Mining by 11.0% during the fourth quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 15,719,591 shares of the basic materials company’s stock valued at $70,266,000 after buying an additional 1,559,563 shares in the last quarter. Deutsche Bank AG raised its stake in Coeur Mining by 107.9% during the fourth quarter. Deutsche Bank AG now owns 1,953,092 shares of the basic materials company’s stock valued at $8,729,000 after buying an additional 1,013,536 shares in the last quarter. BlackRock Inc. grew its holdings in shares of Coeur Mining by 7.1% during the fourth quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 13,712,933 shares of the basic materials company’s stock valued at $61,297,000 after purchasing an additional 914,807 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Macquarie Group Ltd. grew its holdings in shares of Coeur Mining by 10.6% during the fourth quarter. Macquarie Group Ltd. now owns 4,615,285 shares of the basic materials company’s stock valued at $20,630,000 after purchasing an additional 443,668 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 65.90% of the company’s stock.

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Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) was upgraded by Zacks Investment Research from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note issued to investors on Wednesday, Zacks.com reports.

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Top coverage

Maddog-Buygold–tanker seized-no response with gold…ya know…I’m just gonna chalk it up to op-ex…

Posted by Richard640 @ 15:06 on July 19, 2019  

sometimes mkts. have a delayed. reaction to events–like Maddog points out about crude up only 39 cents…that’s how zi’m playing it and I will risk loading up before the close…I. think the risk of a Sunday nite massacree is minimal…and this Iran thingee could ferment over. the weekend…the. dollar?  Could be a problem…but that’s a risk I’ll take…cause all the other 172 reasons to own gold haven’t changed today…traders in PMs now have.  a hair. trigger finger…and. if gold comes up green sunday nite they could all pile in…the fear of “missing out” is now the new preoccupation…can’t be sure but I think it’s all op-ex adjustments and games today…

Buygold, Ipso_facto. Judging only from the PM shares that we hold, it seems that

Posted by Equisetum @ 14:55 on July 19, 2019  

the writers of code for the algorithms that control where our pm holdings go from day-to-day have not allowed the lines in the code that are based on momentum of the preceding 1 or 2 days to function without an over-ride. The over-ride is the section of code that has traditionally triggered a damper that ensures that three strong up days are not to be permitted. I have come to expect this over-ride to remain in the code and I have learned to live with it. But someday someone authorized to do so may change some aspects of the algorithm code. Cheers.

Ipsofacto

Posted by Maddog @ 14:41 on July 19, 2019  

No tks…haven’t read it all…watching the lunatics protect their calls by selling more and now they are buying the SM and selling Oil….as if nothing has happened…it’s just unreal.

As I said Trump has now twice backed away, by calling off the 1st raid and then offering Ron Paul..he is being backed into a corner…of course if we hadn’t butchered our military, we could have protected our own ships, but these woke arseholes in westminster would rather spend the money on overseas aid….maybe that’s what the mkt thinks…the Donald will tell us to look after ourselves….May has done nothing but anger him.

I am so ashamed of our so called leaders, I’ve stepped in way higher life forms.

Oil should be flying

Posted by ipso facto @ 14:31 on July 19, 2019  
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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.