Posted by Maddog
@ 11:02 on July 17, 2019
Re negative Junk Bond rates…remember that EU law/Regulations say u must have a certain percentage of Pension funds invested in Highly Liquid assets…aka Government Bonds, Blue Chip etc…so the demand is entirely false, but they have no choice but to drive rates lower and lower.
The EU is run by lunatics and they have just ‘elected’ or really shoehorned in, another bunch to run the show, including that Frog crook Lagarde to head up the ECB .
The lower they push rates, the higher the demand will be for PM’s……which as the article says are still dirt cheap.
Posted by ipso facto
@ 10:44 on July 17, 2019
Posted by Maddog
@ 10:28 on July 17, 2019
Silver breaks out at 16.50….if it takes out 21.00, which should be easy from the base it has….U count across the base and get 27 boxes, add those to 21 and the tgt is $ 48.00 then that triggers the monster Cup and Handle/Saucer base from the ’80’s to then….which can support prices in the 100’s…like 2 or 3 hundred…easily.
The Cup and Handle/Saucer base may well be the worlds largest ever and they are the most powerful TA formations of all.
Posted by redneckokie1
@ 10:22 on July 17, 2019
I am going to take profit at just under $68.00. It’s been a good run and I think a correction is close.
rno
Posted by Buygold
@ 10:08 on July 17, 2019
but the scum is sitting on NEM again
Posted by Buygold
@ 9:26 on July 17, 2019
Looks like it might be a chance for the gold shares to play catch up today – hopefully.
Silver up nicely again, even with the USD flat. Treasury rates almost seem to matter more to the metals right now than anything.
As your article notes, HUI has been consolidating at 200 for a little while now. Might be getting close to the time to leave that in the dust.
Posted by Richard640
@ 9:22 on July 17, 2019
unchanged–it has done that every day–and even has. been green for 15 or 30 seconds then is sent back down–as I write that might. be happening…t’would be nice to have a 10 or 20 buck up day and leave this range…an up day for “no reason”–that is no event or report or the $ being down .700 etc
Posted by Richard640
@ 9:13 on July 17, 2019
With that I. feel free to post. an outstanding article on gold–I also apologize to the. forum–I know we. are not supposed to print entire articles–but I can’t find a link for this–but this one is really insightful–this is a. repost for those. that missed it. here is. the. link to. NFRTH web. site
https://nftrh.com/free-eletter-2/
HUI is bullish. Period. A gap at 180 to fill? Sure, it can. Bullish. The gaps down lower? I don’t think so; not any time soon as they were part of the launch and were breakawaygaps that put Huey above its moving averages and changed its trend. Overbought? Yes, but less so due to the consolidation of the last couple of weeks.
That is what a bullish market does. It gets overbought, it consolidates, it gets chart nerds like me talking about gaps and then it takes a new step up. It is called momentum and it has entered the gold stock sector. Personally for mental health, I keep a view that the 170-180 support area could be tested (filling the upper gap) but you don’t want to be playing guessing games with bullish markets. If it goes bearish, it goes bearish. But right now it’s very bullish and it could just as easily rip higher.
I’ve added the Stochastic to show that it is bullish and as long as it remains above 80, HUI remains bullish. That’s simply the current daily chart technical of it.
Precious Metals
The Commitments of Traders (CoT) structure for gold is generally thought to be bearish on a contrary basis.
Sure, gold’s CoT is in a state where a significant pullback couldcome about. It is also in the state it would necessarily be in after a strong bull move and breakout from very notable resistance. It simply means that large speculators are very bullish and commercial hedgers – of varying flavors (banks, miners and sure, if the conspiracy theorists are correct, a few nefarious enterprises L) are on the other side of the trade, as they alwaysare. So the key question is not ‘who are the evil forces that want to “smash” gold?’but instead, ‘how long will the large specs be right?’
Well, from 2009 until well into 2011 the large specs were very right until they got wrong as Ben Bernanke finally unveiled (and count me as a conspiracy theorist here) Operation Twist with the intent of killing inflation signals and forcing the yield curve to stop steepening and begin a flattening trend that endured until 2019.
Bottom Line: We should follow the fundamentals and the technicals and leave CoT a distant third in managing the short to intermediate-terms in gold and gold stocks.
As for silver, it’s CoT situation (chart below) is not near an extreme and that leaves some room for a catch-up move and possibly a take over of precious metals leadership. Again, CoT is just one angle of a view into the workings of the precious metals but the alignments are in concert with our current expectation for silver to eventually take over from gold IFthe macro is to go inflationary. That’s still an ‘if’until it happens, but I like the states of the Au & Ag CoTs with respect to a future inflation view.
As you can see, silver has rallied just a bit and the CoT have shown increasing spec longs and commercial shorts. All normal. I think it is a positive that silver has been muted in price and in CoT relative to gold. It’s almost as if its in the weeds, laying in wait. And those of us who’ve been around a while know that’s not usually its M.O.
For now let’s realize that nothing has changed in the precious metals’ relationship as the daily chart shows.
Switching gears however, this…
The fact that gold stocks have been leading gold since the May breakdown (nice bear trap for gold stock bears) is a continuing bullish technical underpinning. What is also nice is that handle (bull flag) that extended from the top in 2016 to 2019. Ref. here the other monthly chart with a closer view showing a flag breakout in process. This monthly chart shows us that the ratio is attempting to take out the EMA 50, which tends to support bull markets and limit bear markets.
Gold (weekly) is in a normal consolidation as expected. But this simple chart tells what the plan will be if the 1350-1375 support zone holds. That support area was absolutely critical long-term resistance to be taken out, and now it is just as important as support.
What more to say about silver? A break of the trend line would be seen by those speculators noted in the CoT discussion, not to mention legions of chart jockeys, momentum traders, casino patrons, black boxes and eventually, Ma & Pa. In other words, as noted above “its in the weeds, laying in wait”assuming the bull case is correct (and that will likely be determined by what it does at the trend line. It sounds like a Catch 22 of sorts (“that’s some catch, that Catch 22”).
Here is what I consider the most important macro fundamental situation for the miners. As SPX has put on its move to the 3000 target, Gold/SPX ratio has pulled back. Logical and fine. But I state again, this must remain intact for a full bull sector view.
Dialing in to a gold mining sectorfundamental consideration, we see that the numbers about to be reported for Q2 will be the product of an environment where the gold/oil ratio was elevated. This chart was originally created to show gold stock under valuation, but HUI – in the context of a daily chart at least – has caught up and then some. In other words, it has already discounted whatever positives the rising GOR will bring.
Is that a caution point? Could be on the nearer-term, but the markets are filled with could-be’s. Taking a wider angle view the gold stock undervaluation (to this metric, at least) we’ve highlighted over the last couple of years is still fully intact. The gross under valuation began in 2014 and while not as gross now, is still well in place. What’s more, the Gold/Oil ratio is still in a long-term uptrend.
Posted by Buygold
@ 8:23 on July 17, 2019
of course will like it a lot more if silver goes on a tear.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXK
GPL should get some traction eventually too – it’s way overdue and could be another one of R6’s “NGD’s”
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL
Posted by Buygold
@ 8:00 on July 17, 2019
without the dollar strength or rate rise – Ten yr. down a couple ticks
Hopefully we can see some more silver shorts get squeezed again today.
Posted by Maya
@ 3:20 on July 17, 2019
Crawford Notch in scenic New Hampshire,
and a newly rebuilt steamer.
https://railpictures.net/photo/701640/
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 21:00 on July 16, 2019
Yes in ‘normal’ market conditions this is the case. However we do not have normal markets anymore. In fact we don’t have markets for the most part. The trading environments thought of as markets today are too heavily managed to resemble free price discovery mechanisms.
Today’s trade was a perfect example. How did the status quo resolve the collapse in the gold / silver ratio all the way to the 50 day moving average? Answer: By smashing gold while a small bid was allowed to enter silver. Silver tends to out-perform at the end of cyclical runs no matter the degree, setting the stage for more sector wide weakness as the gold / silver ratio corrects back up into options expiry, and likely beyond if the entire move from June needs to be retraced now.
The good news is a bullish five-wave sequence has now traced out in silver (and its derivatives too) — signaling further upside once consolidations (a – b – c affairs) are traced out. This was a missing component to the larger sector sequencing up until just a few days ago.
So it appears the manipulation might be able to delay more impulsive moves in the sector — but not forever.
Like I said earlier today…the (huge) money from bonds needs to go somewhere…and some of that money will find its way into PM’s.
And it won’t take much to move the entire tiny PM sector a great deal.
Cheers
Posted by Richard640
@ 19:56 on July 16, 2019
Bank Run: Deutsche Bank Clients Are Pulling $1 Billion A Day
It also means that countless hegde funds are suddenly at risk of being gated on whatever liquid exposure they have toward Deutsche Bank.
To be sure, Deutsche Bank’s hedge fund balances have been declining throughout the year as speculation swirled around Sewing’s intentions for the prime brokerage, but the rate of redemptions was far lower than $1 billion per day. Now that the bank jog has become a bank run, the next question is how much liquidity reserves does DB really have and what happen if hedge funds clients – suddenly spooked they will be the last bagholders standing – pull the remaining €150 billion all at once.
We are confident we will get the answer in a few days if not hours, until then please enjoy this chart which compares DB’s stock decline to that of another bank which was gripped by a historic liquidity run in its last days too…
Posted by Richard640
@ 18:52 on July 16, 2019
10,794.59+193.56 (+1.83%)
As of 5:04PM EDT. Market open.
Posted by Richard640
@ 17:33 on July 16, 2019
“GOLD’S CHART: Tight and tighter is the Consolidation Pattern Evolving: As the consolidation pattern builds, the volume wanes and that is almost always a sign of impending strength not weakness. Our propensity add to the position is high and is rising!”
Posted by Richard640
@ 17:11 on July 16, 2019
Posted by Richard640
@ 17:03 on July 16, 2019
FED easing. was cited as the spark that set off the. recent gold. rally—what? No Longer? So. why was the $ strong today and gold down?
Out today=Powell in Paris said that many at the FED see the stronger case for a FED rate cut
Also out today-as per CNBC=
White. house says. expect. one trillion. dollar deficit- the biggest ever. excluding. years of recession
Posted by Warren
@ 16:40 on July 16, 2019
I like how silver gave the scum the finger today. They leaned hard on the pms – gold, platinum and palladium and were able to keep them well in check. But silver would only go so far. I think there is a rumbling in the distance that could turn into something big and if silver blows, what else will go too? If silver is the achilles heel, the scum be limping pretty soon.
Posted by Buygold
@ 16:09 on July 16, 2019
Well they did a number on gold, but considering the USD strength and rise in rates, and silver up. I think we got off pretty easy.
I had a couple silver stocks that were up 8-9%. They shouldn’t have been, but volume was heavy in the silver complex across the board, either shorts want out real bad, or momentum players want in real bad.
I do agree with the Capt. it may just be a matter of time before our suffering ends.
A little bit of dollar weakness will go a long way IMHO.
Posted by Maddog
@ 16:01 on July 16, 2019
PM’s had to be tame today, their beloved SM was weak…that rule is written in stone.
Posted by deer79
@ 15:53 on July 16, 2019
Every play in the playbook…..
Posted by Richard640
@ 15:21 on July 16, 2019
NGD-I suspect that the street and insiders know good earnings are coming
1.3400+0.06 (+4.69%)
As of 3:06PM EDT. Market open.
Posted by Maddog
@ 13:30 on July 16, 2019
PAAS up near 7 % ……NEM down 0.7 % …..
Posted by Maddog
@ 13:28 on July 16, 2019
Not sure Faceplant will be allowed to run a Crypto, too much competition for the Dollar and Fall st …but it won’t be easy to stop them, unless they taken apart by Anti Trust, as they can argue loads of other two bit Co’s have launched them…
Posted by Richard640
@ 13:09 on July 16, 2019
1:03–powell speaks. in paris reaffirms rate cut-just out on FOX Biz–he turned gold-lets see if it lasts and watch the dollar=reported that. he also is. watching risks of debt ceil breach and Brexit
My JNUG just did. a rocket launch!! Silver just made. a new high…the $. is drifting off its high–if it continues gold could. get explosive
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNUG?p=JNUG&.tsrc=fin-srch
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/DX.html
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