“The global manufacturing sector downshifted again at the end of the second quarter…Conditions will need to stage a marked recovery if manufacturing is to revive later in the year…”

Buygold @ 10:43

Posted by Captain Hook @ 11:54 on July 1, 2019

Getting re-elected is the desired result.

Anything else is ‘collateral’.

Cheers

USD pretty strong

Posted by Buygold @ 10:43 on July 1, 2019

Not sure that was Trump’s desired outcome.

Funny thing though, the Ten yr. is only up to 2.01% from 2% – not exactly brimming with confidence.

R6

Posted by Buygold @ 10:36 on July 1, 2019

Definitely have boot on neck of shares.

I keep getting the sense that silver has a chance to go positive, not sure why, this stuff rarely comes back on a heavy down day and the shares aren’t indicating any king of a comeback.

Believe it or not, I thought it would be a lot worse than this today.

Richard640

Posted by Captain Hook @ 10:19 on July 1, 2019

While there are a lot of idiot PM derivatives gamblers that need to be forced out of their positions in coming days, I am hopeful they see their ill-advised ways after this predictable shellacking and start accumulating actual bullion and shares to counter the games played in the derivatives markets. I am dreaming of course because they are beyond hope, which is why the end game is particularly nasty, with a return to far more primitive living increasingly likely. (i.e. if everybody is in stocks, derivatives, etc. even if we get hyperinflation first, in the end most are wiped out.)

That said, and bringing in the time frame, as long as silver hangs in while the gold gamblers are purged in the futures, there is a better than even chance PM’s rally further after a consolidation in the week(s) to come.

Cheers

Nice bounce in G&S but they are relentlessly hammering the PM stocks and ETFs

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:04 on July 1, 2019

We are back to pre-rally action…something to think about–

Good Morning Captain!–so what’s your bottom line? The gold rally’s still on track-its rise inevitable?

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:57 on July 1, 2019

Well, good morning, Captain!
Well, good morning to you son
Do you need another mule skinner
Down on your new mud run?
Ha, ha, hip, ee, ee

Well, I’m an old mule skinner,
From down Kentucky way,
And I can make any mule listen,
Or I won’t accept your pay.
Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha,
Hee, hee, hee, hee, hee, ha, ha,
Well hey, hey.

Little water boy, come here boy,
Bring that water bucket around
Ha, ha, ha,
If you don’t like your job
Water boy, put that bucket down
Ha, ha,…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3-mh3vXDA0&frags=pl%2Cwn

Smelly ole NGD up a penny on very heavy volume=617,111 shares

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:50 on July 1, 2019

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=NGD&qsearchterm=

I’m gonna try to add on some calls

Richard640 @ 5:14

Posted by Captain Hook @ 9:23 on July 1, 2019

The Fed is cornered. If they don’t cut rates later this month the everything bubble will implode faster than the Dems can say — ‘that’s all folks’.

So the commercials either cover their shorts now or deal with an increasingly dovish narrative as month end approaches.

Then we have Trump who either reverses the entire moog fest over the weekend or face being labeled a turncoat double agent in the pocket of the globalists / bankers. He is of coarse just that (anything to get re-elected), where even if Hillary et al are taken to task it would be more akin to them being thrown under the bus as opposed to actual fundamental change. You can’t make it that obvious.

The Chinese are back in the door — really? — guess we better brush up on our mandarin — because the control state is on its way 5G (microwave, cancer, death) living and all.

Cheers

The “easy money thesis” is solid-lower rates round the. world ahead–it. started this rally but can it still revive it?

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:19 on July 1, 2019

A reported trade “truce” between China and US has prompted excited talk of fresh record highs in US stocks, a surge in Chinese stocks, a jump in offshore yuan relative to the dollar, but barely anything in bonds (with 10Y Yields hovering just above 2.00%, unable to hold the overnight spike).

But, as Bloomberg’s Garfield Reynolds warns, the key danger across markets is the potential for a corrective yield spike that would pummel risk assets and worry investors that they have fallen for a low-yield trap.

Via Bloomberg,

Falling bond yields have been the big surprise of 2019 so far and there’s an excellent chance they will grind lower in the second half — and take stocks with them — as weak growth spurs global monetary easing.

Given how tough it has been to forecast bond yields, getting that call right for the rest of the year is key.

A reminder of how difficult that can be comes from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Twice last week she said it’s very hard to say what the central bank should do, including comments that she’s unsure “whether interest rates will be lower a year from now.”

Surveying the outlooks our team came up with at the start of 2019, it’s clear our biggest misses were all in bonds
The same goes for those readers who took part in our surveys. Treasury yields finished June more than 100 bps below the consensus for end-2019, while bunds were ~75 bps lower and Italian yields a whopping 105. Bond analysts were also far too bearish.

What some forecasters may find especially galling is the way the yield projections actually look sensible if you consider where equity gauges are now. The same goes for FX projections that mostly favored a soft-dollar outlook.

Our readers were bearish bonds and bullish equities, and while equities are mostly well north of the WHIS numbers, bond yields are way, way south.

Oddly enough, the growing concern right now seems to be the rush into bonds has created massive duration risk that could set off a global version of the so-called VaR shock that hit Japanese government debt back in 2003.

Very few seem to be raising concerns that U.S. equities at a record high would be at least as exposed to the turmoil that would come. Consider how the spike in Treasury yields in February 2018 set off global carnage for stocks.

Still, with central banks marching down the easing path, justified by a record stretch of data disappointment, a meaningful backup in yields looks unlikely.

The G-20 trade truce did very little to indicate a resolution to the U.S.-China conflict is imminent, so that will continue to weigh on the global growth outlook.

The key question is whether yields that stay at current lows or drop further can go on being fuel for equity rallies?

Your answer to that may come down to whether you buy into the “insurance cut” thesis that the Fed will be able to preserve the U.S. economic expansion with a rate move or two.

What looks more likely is that equities ultimately succumb to the macro logic that has fueled this year’s bond rally.

Maddog–spot gold low this a.m. was 1382-that’s close enuff

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:08 on July 1, 2019

Gold is now $12 off the bottom & silver, oddly, is only down 3…but every bounce gets challenged…the dip buyers. are still there but aren’t as effective as they were for the past 3 weeks…fUngers crossed!

The next. best. hope for gold is Fridays. job. report estimated at. 165K which not long ago was considered a weak number but has been. “dialogued” by Wall St as a solid one

R640

Posted by Maddog @ 8:46 on July 1, 2019

This all looks like a continuation of the consolidation started last week….1380 was a Break out that some people had that has now been back tested.

The SM is in a 3 of 3 of 5th etc, so it can go bonkers here and is.

Can. the easy money regime still save gold from oblivion? It certainly. shows no sign of reversing! On Bloomberg this. a.m. they said theECB is “out of bullets”

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:09 on July 1, 2019

China Slumps Into Full-Blown Manufacturing Contraction Following “Awful” Asian PMI Prints

June data highlighted a challenging month for Chinese manufacturers, with trade tensions reportedly causing renewed declines in total sales, export orders and productio

SLV down. now 2 but even that is amazing…

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:03 on July 1, 2019

Surprised SLV is flat

Posted by Buygold @ 7:47 on July 1, 2019

with gold down $18

we’ll have to see if the scum comes in at the Crimex open with one of their patented billion dollar notional dumps inside a minute

PM shares will probably tell us a lot today.

Rick’s ‘Morning Line’ for Monday Traders Hot for a Lousy Trade Deal

Posted by Richard640 @ 7:40 on July 1, 2019

Trump may not get much of a trade deal from China, but you can count on Wall Street to milk even a lousy deal for all it’s worth. His concession to Huawei in order to get talks started again was a major comedown for the U.S. It will doubtless please the Wall Street Journal and their ilk that the blackball has been lifted against Huawei, a telecom biggie that buys many components from Silicon Valley companies. This is ironic, however, because the Journal itself has recently done some exposés describing in scary detail how Chinese tech companies like Huawei spy on customers with tiny, embedded microprocessors that collect sensitive data and transmit it back to Beijing. Some of these devices evidently so small and cleverly hidden that even cybersleuths poring over compromised motherboards with microscopes cannot detect them. Trump knows this but apparently is willing to overlook the threat in order to have good news to report from the G-20 meeting. “Hey, we’ve gotta do business with these a**holes,” is probably what he would tweet if he could let it all hang out, but even Trump has his limits.

DaBoyz ‘Revved Up’

On Friday, U.S. stocks took a prescient leap in the final hour. The Supersmart Money may already have substantially discounted whatever positive news on trade is still to come. Expect the trade-desk-chimps’ algorithms to react reflexively when U.S. markets open Sunday night. On the erroneous but convenient and universally agreed-upon assumption that the Trump/Xi deal will jump-start global trade, we should see strength in crude oil and gold, weakness in bond prices, and a short-squeeze on index futures. They seem to rise more on ‘good’ news than fall on bad news, so it will be a net gain for the Masters of the Universe. They should have quite a week, considering that the Fed has been intimidated by Trump and the Street into a new round of easing, presumably starting in July. The only wrinkle we could foresee is an unexpectedly fabulous deal with China. Were that to occur, the charlatans and dwarves who run the central bank might be forced to pretend, at least for a few days, that easing has become less likely. Yeah, sure.

Silver almost. unchanged–down just. a penny & 17 cent off the low–gold 13 bucks off the low

Posted by Richard640 @ 7:32 on July 1, 2019

-The $ is .245 off its high—the 10 yr note is only down 11/64ths–these numbers offer a straw or two to grasp for a turn back up today or tomorrow

Easy money policy around the world is still intact–ditto the FED–remember the change in FED policy to easing was the alibi that got the long-delayed gold rally in gear–now, suddenly, that doesn’t matter–so gold traders have to be on alert

NEWS OUT TODAY=

BERLIN, July 1 (Reuters) – Activity in Germany’s export-dependent manufacturing sector contracted in June for the sixth time in a row, a survey showed on Monday, as weaker demand weighed on new orders and led to a fall in employment.

******************************************

China Slumps Into Full-Blown Manufacturing Contraction Following “Awful” Asian PMI Prints

June data highlighted a challenging month for Chinese manufacturers, with trade tensions reportedly causing renewed declines in total sales, export orders and productio

***************************************************************

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/SI_.html

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/GC_.html

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/DX.html

Happy Canada Day

Posted by winedoc @ 7:10 on July 1, 2019

images

Winedoc

Maddog–nothing has changed regadring interest rates–The FED will cut rates in July–look at the time tamp on this article

Posted by Richard640 @ 5:14 on July 1, 2019

Economics

Clarida Says Fed Will ‘Act as Appropriate’ to Sustain Expansion

July 1, 2019, 3:32 AM EDT Updated on July 1, 2019, 4:11 AM EDT

Vice chairman says the U.S. economy is in a ‘good place’
Investors expect Fed to cut interest rates at July meeting

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said many U.S. central bankers see a stronger case for easier monetary policy relative to the outlook just two months ago.

“We will certainly act as appropriate to put in place policies that sustain the economic expansion, and the strong labor market and price stability,” Clarida said at a Bank of Finland conference in Helsinki on Monday. He cited mounting uncertainty for global trade and growth, and investment plans by U.S. businesses.

U.S. central bankers left the benchmark lending rate unchanged at their June 18-19 meeting, while pivoting toward a rate cut. The central bank said in its statement that “uncertainties’’ about the outlook have increased and that it will “closely monitor’’ incoming information.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-01/clarida-says-fed-will-act-as-appropriate-to-sustain-expansion

******************************************************************************

MADDOG=there may be one crucial change that traders who. are long. this current rally with profits should consider. That is: are the commercials., the big bullion banks and the PPT back in. charge of gold–they haven’t been for 2 or 3 weeks….never mind sbout. the high RSIs or that the $ is up .400 today…or that the 10 yt note is down 30/64ths….none of that. has mattered…traders must consider that the entire rally still could be reversed…gold may have lost its immunity or “bullet-proofness”…nothing is certain…the rally still could be on—this could be just the ‘Healthy pullback”…but we know that gold is a special case and that the spectacular “technical breakout” could all be reversed…

***************************************************************

News only. affects gold negatively–stocks go up because all news is bullish for stocks–stocks are telling up that with or without a trade deal OR RATE CUT they will rally

********************************************************************

the only positive or “diagnostic clue”. in golds favor is that silver is only down 5 cent…

JNUG is down a hefty 7.7%—silver miners WPM and AG are down 3.5% each despite silver barely down—could be worse by 9:30…

Not that the scum care

Posted by Maddog @ 3:35 on July 1, 2019

But Gold broke out due to the ECB capitulating over Money printing and the likelihood of the Fed following….todays news might help, but it is no guaranteed cure at all.

What a perfect scumday

Posted by Maddog @ 3:14 on July 1, 2019

2nd wave hit at 6 am London time, buying Dollar and SM, selling Bonds and of course PM’s and has been non stop now for last 2 hrs plus.

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Clarida Says Fed Will ‘Act as Appropriate’ to Sustain Expansion