http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/ZN.html

It. looks like stock. markets. are whistling past the graveyard, bravely.  trying to. ignore,  like. a. fart in an elevator,  the bad news…dismissing it  as “old news”…”already discounted”…we’ll get a better picture Monday night…but. tonights action. does. not bode well.

you gotta remember, this is florida, and florida traffic rules prevail.  just because dorian has his blinker on, that does not definitely mean he’s going to turn.

The problem: circumstances don’t obviously dictate that the Fed should be intervening. The unemployment rate is 3.7%, near a 50-year low. Stock prices are within 3% of all-time highs, while all varieties of bonds are priced at unprecedented lofty levels. And after declining to near zero in March, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now Forecast has current growth maintaining a reasonable late-cycle 2% pace.

The notion that the Federal Reserve would not respond to declining stock prices – under any circumstance – has become heresy. There was no outrage when the Greenspan Fed manipulated the yield curve and adopted an asymmetrical policy approach to underpin the securities markets. Where was the outrage when Bill Dudley (while at Goldman Sachs) and others specifically called for the Fed to adopt policies to spur mortgage Credit expansion for the purpose of systemic reflation after the collapse of the “tech” Bubble? There was even minimal debate when the Bernanke Fed employed unprecedented post-mortgage finance Bubble Credit allocation and reflationary measures. And it was as if I was the only analyst that had an issue when Bernanke later stated the Fed would “push back” against a tightening of financial conditions, essentially signaling the Federal Reserve would not tolerate a market correction.

I am again reminded of the late Dr. Richebacher’s important insight that asset inflation is the most dangerous type of inflation, certainly riskier than consumer price inflation. There is (was) general agreement that more than a modest increase in consumer prices is undesirable and would provoke tightening measures from responsible central bankers. But with rising asset prices almost universally viewed constructively (while confirming the soundness of policies), there is no constituency motivated to rise up and demand measures to contain inflating asset prices and Bubbles.

It is now a consensus view that the Federal Reserve (and global central bankers) should backstop financial markets to promote economic growth and wealth creation. The Fed, market participants and most pundits prefer to ignore that such a doctrine places the central bankers at the epicenter of Credit, resource and wealth allocation. Such a position ensures the Fed now wades chest deep in the political muck. It’s been a slippery slope I’ve been chronicling now for over 20 years.

The Fed’s market-centric and interventionist approach has essentially supported incumbent Presidents and Washington politicians. From this perspective, it is clearly “establishment” and susceptible to “deep state” innuendo. This regime is today challenged by President Trump, with his penchant for tariffs, confrontation, and scathing attacks on the Fed and its Chairman. The President is essentially blackmailing the Fed: Play ball or you’ll be blamed, ridiculed and targeted, with clear risk of losing your jobs along with the institution’s coveted independence.

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2019/08/weekly-commentary-dudley-sticks-his.html

the Bahamas are such a beautiful place.

God help the folks in Northern Florida should it hit landfall there. I know we have some Oasis members from the area.

Crazy stuff.

The NY. FED trading desk immediately bought futures-DOW. now down 142–no need to. guess…it’s a nice start but we’ll get. the “verdict” Tuesday morning…

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/GC_.html

Updated at 3:39 p.m. ET

Hurricane Dorian strengthened into a catastrophic Category 5 storm on Sunday, reaching the Bahamas as “the strongest hurricane in modern records” to ever hit the archipelago, according to the National Hurricane Center.

With sustained winds of 185 mph, the slow-moving storm is expected to bring a prolonged period of “catastrophic winds” and storm surge to the Abaco Islands.

Praying for the people of the Bahamas.
Surges already carried people away.
Saw pictures of boasts overtures in the water.
Here are rows of home videos coming out. Much damage and flooding.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-dorian-hit-the-bahamas-photos-videos-2019-9

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-01/breaking-down-bullbear-argument

3) The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines

“Underpinning gains in both stocks and bonds is $5 trillion of capital that is sitting on the sidelines and serving as a reservoir for buying on weakness. This excess cash acts as a backstop for financial assets, both bonds and equities, because any correction is quickly reversed by investors deploying their excess cash to buy the dip,” Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the managing director of global market strategy at JPMorgan, wrote in a client note.

“There are no sidelines. Those saying this seem to envision a seller of stocks moving her money to cash and awaiting a chance to return. But they always ignore that this seller sold to somebody, who presumably moved a precisely equal amount of cash off the sidelines.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-01/breaking-down-bullbear-argument

Yep and ZH has been pretty much wrong as rain for almost ten years running.

Eventually they’ll be right, because even a broken clock is right…..you know the rest.

I’ve been pondering gold and these every 20 year moves. 1979-80, 1999-2000, 2019-20?

5 bagger in gold from here would be huge.

“Burn With Us” – Protesters Clash With Riot Police At Hong Kong Airport Amid Surge Of Violence

“In the evening it’s dangerous, especially at the airport – it’s just a small island…Police can come from the airport and Tung Chung, so it’s two-sided, they can attack from two sides. Soit’s hard to defend yourself,“

US Slaps New Tariffs On China; One Minute Later China Retaliates

“If I had hair, I’d be pulling it out. I’m really concerned about the financial performance of the business, knowing that if we continue to eat this cost, how much it hurts.”

******************************************************

“Financial Vandalism” Of Low And Negative-Yield Bonds Wreck Pension Plans

“It is financial vandalism and the government and central banks need to wake up to this.”

******************************************************

“A Rare Smoking Gun”: Judge Says Goldman And Four Other Firms “Blatantly Price Fixed” GSE-Backed Bonds

“This, on its face, is blatant price fixing…”

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Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument

…this isn’t 1995. 

MARTIN POSTED THIS ON. AUG 30. 2019
QUESTION: Marty,
living in Europe where the talk about the elimination of cash is loud I am asking myself what is planned for foreign currencies, e.g. USD, one holds in cash at home? They can´t forbid it because foreign exchange is needed for traveling.
Even when they forbid it, there must be the possibility to change them to the new “national cryptocurrency” at the official exchange rate. So one is still better off here in the EU with USD in cash rather than Euro in cash?
Please share your opinion on this topic as it is important for so many of us here in the EU in the danger of being robbed by Brussel. YOUR BLOG is the ONLY light out there! Thank you for sharing your knowledge with those who are interested. You probably save a lot of lives enabling normal people to prepare.
*******************************************************************************
ANSWER: Yes, you are correct. The USD is being hoarded everywhere. The reason for this is that the US has NEVER canceled its currency, so a $5 bill from 1861 is still valid although it is worth more than 10 times its face value to a collector. Europeans should hoard US dollars. The worst they can do is make it illegal to hold gold or US dollars. I would recommend common circulated US $20 gold coins. You can get away with calling them collector coins in Europe.

That “business” was part of the headline from zerohedge – not my words.

I’m not sure about the employment numbers, I just have a tough time trusting any gov’t. numbers. We’ve watched for years every number bad or good has mostly been negative for gold. Not so much in the last few months though. Nice change.

Yeah, futures will be in play tonight. I expect the SM will get hit and gold will be up nicely. Unfortunately, they’ll probably find a way to get that all fixed by Tuesday’s open. At least that’s been the way it’s worked in the past.

Posted Aug 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Socrates has done an amazing job forecasting gold all by itself. What I find stunning is gold is rising but so is the dollar. This once again points out that all this gold analysis that it will soar because the dollar is fiat and will go to zero seems really absurd. You have warned that during the early stages gold will rise with the dollar. That is unfolding yet it is going unnoticed. You said you will release a gold report. When?????

PK

GMW on Gold GCNYNF-D

ANSWER: I am sorry. There is a crisis brewing and I had to hop on a plane, so I have been super busy. I will begin that this weekend – promise. You are correct. There is something much bigger going on behind the curtain. I gave the targets and the channel objective on the Pro version of the Private Blog.

The key to everything going into the turning point on the Economic Confidence Model is a correlation. True, these people have been pitching gold because the dollar was supposed to crash to zero or Bitcoin was to become the next RESERVE CURRENCY. That was a good one. Anyone who thinks governments will just fade into the light graciously is insane. Christine Lagarde takes the helm of the ECB in October. She has been preaching that the only way to control the economy is to eliminate all paper money and move electronically.

Trust me. There will be no hyperinflation in the USA. These forecasts are so old school that they are laughable. Welcome to the 21st century. If you are surprised about gold rising with the dollar, it’s about time you wake up and look at the world through unbiased glasses.

Gold & Dollar Rising Together?

I. have noticed over. the. years that they have.  printed a large number of weak. monthly. stats…perhaps for this crucial report they. are afraid to print “ever-rosy=scenario”. numbers. to preserve their.  credibilty and integrity…

As for. my. “golden headline” I hope. you’re rignt…I. think futures. open tonight. and. all day tomorrow even. though mkts are closed in the U.S…also. gold. and stocks will trade. in Asia–so we’ll get.  an. indication for Tuesdays. trade…G*d.  only. knows what new horror or spin  they’ll. dream up to. cap gold…

US Slaps New Tariffs On China; One Minute Later China Retaliates

“If I had hair, I’d be pulling it out. I’m really concerned about the financial performance of the business, knowing that if we continue to eat this cost, how much it hurts.”

Maya – I didn’t know that about Gartman’s daughter. Always wondered how he got on that show after being hideously wrong for so many years, and really none of the anchors calling him out on it. Makes sense now.

R6 – those numbers are going to be a crap shoot. I’ve always felt that the numbers – especially the jobs numbers – will be tailored to fit whatever narrative the Fed needs to support their next move.

Regardless, as you say, gold to the moon! Someday! 🙂 Hoping we’ll be ok this week, I think so.

Glad she likes them because they’re on their way to the US

Lagarde Praises Negative Rates (But Study Shows They Reduce Lending)

Negative interest rates unquestionably hurt EU banks and there is no evidence of Lagarde’s proposed counter-benefits… A European banking crisis awaits...

All. will be.  weakish=conclusion=much higher gold prices

Additional tariffs went into effectat midnight=gold to da moon!

…is that his daughter is a Producer on CNBC.  She uses him for a filler.  Caveat Emptor… let the buyer (viewer) beware.  He’s been so wrong, so often, he cannot possibly be a successful trader.