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Saudi air defenses are insufficient to cover its geography, leaving significant air defense gaps, especially around critical energy infrastructure.
- The Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces rely heavily on U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, which a sustained number of missile and drone attacks over a period of time can overwhelm. The Patriots are also configured to strike ballistic missiles, not cruise missiles and suicide drones — both of which were used in the Sept. 14 attacks.
- Saudi Arabia also has numerous critical oil and gas facilities that are vulnerable to future attacks, including the Jubail plant, the Juaymah facility, the Shaybah oil field, the Berri Gas Plant and the Safaniya processing plant; moreover, without much redundancy left at Abqaiq, a second strike there could have far more serious consequences.
- Midstream oil and gas facilities, airports and ports, and water desalination plants are also potential targets in the event of a military escalation with Iran.
- We don’t know if Iran is planning similar attacks in the near future. But if Iran thinks the U.S. and Saudi hesitance to respond militarily against Iran is high enough and the maximum pressure campaign continues unabated, Iran will likely consider more attacks.
What is the risk this situation presents for the other Arab Gulf states, as well as the broader region?
A broader conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran could spread economic damage to parts of the Gulf more closely aligned to Riyadh, but other states that have carved out better relations with Tehran are less likely to feel the impacts from the escalating tensions.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/qa-why-did-iran-attack-saudi-arabia