Loading ...The attacks in May and June on Gulf installations and shipping were the first shot across the bow. The downing of a U.S. drone was another step up the ladder of escalation. These larger attacks are the third step. So far the attacks have drawn no significant retaliation against Iran and also no breakthrough on their goal of lifting at least some sanctions.
President Donald Trump is in a very difficult position, largely of his own making. He signaled a great reluctance to retaliate or escalate after the drone downing, and later fired his hawkish national security advisor, John Bolton. These are likely seen in Iran as signs of weakness, which in a sense they are, and encourage further escalation.
Trump and Iran have each other over barrels. Trump’s sanctions are badly hurting Iran, and their escalation is putting enormous political pressure on him.
If he does nothing, the Iranians will keep raising the temperature and oil prices will steadily edge upward, impacting his reelection campaign. If he retaliates militarily, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will take the blow and then have license to stage a larger counterstrike in the Gulf, driving oil prices more steeply upward. If Trump concedes and extends waivers or suspends a few sanctions, he might defuse the crisis, but he will look very weak politically.
What he is trying to go for is a quick photo-op negotiation in which Iran gives some minor concessions on sunset clauses and perhaps the range of its ballistic missiles, and he can relievedly announce the lifting of at least some sanctions, and trumpet the “Trump Deal” over the terrible Obama one. So far, the Iranians are playing hard ball and not offering him that off ramp. Indeed, Iranian hardliners might not even want to offer Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif that off ramp.
But there is a deal that can and should be made, at least to ward off a ruinous escalation between now and the U.S. elections in November 2020. The Iran issue will be on the desk of the next president, whether it’s Trump 2.0 or a Democrat.