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September 2019
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Have all our famous CoT Analysts & Newsletters been reviewing:

Posted by Samb @ 19:03 on September 14, 2019

A false set of books! (Clue here… yet seems scant interest) Posted all this many years ago and yet the scam still goes on. Imagine analyzing Enron back then when your data points were based upon a phony set of books.

R640

Posted by Maddog @ 18:00 on September 14, 2019

How many times have we been here…Au will be down, oil will be down and the SM well up…within minutes of Sunday night.

Don’t Be Another Wall Street Chump

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:55 on September 14, 2019

Authored by Economic Prism’s MN Gordon, annotated by Acting-Man’s Pater Tenebrarum,

The Future and the Past

Securities and Exchange Commission Rule 156 requires financial institutions to advise investors to not be idiots. Hence, the disclosure pages of nearly every financial instrument in the U.S. are embedded with the following admission or variant thereof:

“Past Performance Is Not Indicative of Future Results”

“Buy and hold”… “The market goes always up”… “No-one can time the market”… “Buy the dip” “With what? You said not to sell anything”… “Simple, mortgage the farm…” The image above shows roughly what happens right after everybody feels the warm & fuzzies due to the fact that the market has been going up without a hitch for quite some time. Once the conviction that it can only rise further is widespread and firmly embedded in investor psyches (who cares about valuations?), this is often what the next scene looks like… [PT]

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The instruction is futile. Most investors are idiots, including many of the pros. What’s more, suspiciously absent from all disclosures is “how” to not be an idiot. Perhaps this is because such guidance would discourage many unwitting investors from getting mixed up with the stock market in the first place.

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Without question, if you don’t know what you are looking at, the past can be an abysmal predictor of future investment returns. One year the S&P 500 is up 10 percent. Another year it is up 20 percent. Then, to the surprise of practically every Wall Street analyst, the S&P 500 crashes 50 percent.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dont-be-another-wall-street-chump

Hows come we’re not getting. excited by. this? Now they blame Iran–so. war tensions are. back–gold spike? Crude spike. sunday nite?

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:46 on September 14, 2019

Oil To Hit $100? Pompeo Accuses Iran Of “Unprecedented” Drone Attack That Crippled Largest Saudi Oil Processing Facility

Saudi Aramco describes the Buqyaq facility as “the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world.”

Update 2: In a sharp, if perhaps not unexpected, escalation, US Secretary of State – now without John Bolton by his side – tweeted at 4pm on Saturday, that contrary to earlier reports, This could which has now indefinitely taken offline as much as 5mmb/d in Saudi crude production.

In a follow up tweet, Pompeo said that he calls “on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks” which is odd as not even Saudi Arabia accused Iran of today’s aggression (which many speculated could have been a Saudi false flag in hopes of sending the price of oil soaring ahead of the Aramco IPO). Pompeo concluded that “the United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression.”

Will this pivot away from Houthis to Iran as the “origin” of the attack be sufficient grounds to re-inflame tensions between the US and Iran, especially following last week’s news that one of the reasons Bolton was fired was due to his hard-line stance on Iran even as Trump was willing to sit down with the Tehran regime for negotiations. Since the deep state stands to make much more money from war rather than peace, our guess is that the answer is a resounding “yes.”

Likely not an empty threat

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:49 on September 14, 2019

Israeli Attacks On Syria Halted After Russia Threatened To Shoot Down Jets

According to reports in both Israeli and Arabic regional media, Israel this past week was preparing to expand major airstrikes against “Iran-backed” targets in Syria, but Moscow imposed its red line. The Independent has published a story describing that Russia’s military in Syria threatened to shoot down any invading Israeli warplanes using fighter jets or their S-400 system.

The Jerusalem Post, citing sources in the UK Independent (Arabia), writes just after the latest meeting in Sochi between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin:

According to the report, Moscow has prevented three Israeli airstrikes on three Syrian outposts recently, and even threatened that any jets attempting such a thing would be shot down, either by Russian jets or by the S400 Anti-aircraft missiles. The source cited in the report claims a similar situation has happened twice, and that during August, Moscow stopped an airstrike on a Syrian outpost in Qasioun, where a S300 missile battery is placed.

Netanyahu’s hasty trip to meet with Putin on Thursday – even in the final days before Tuesday’s key election – was reportedly with a goal to press the Russian president on essentially ignoring Israel’s attacks in Syria.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-attacks-syria-halted-after-russia-threatened-shoot-down-jets-report

Ah, the famous CoT reports

Posted by Samb @ 14:05 on September 14, 2019

I see a good many analysts use it/ reference it to justify their latest positioning. Every now and then some will complain about the notorious 3 day lag time for its public release. 3 days…really! in this day and age?? Yup. But, why the 3 day lag? ANYBODY? I know the answer but, if I told you why (yes, it’s rigged) I wonder if you would believe me.

Thanks R6 – I follow

Posted by Buygold @ 13:26 on September 14, 2019

I guess if there’s a time to take a shot it would be now. I agree with you that the China trade news – especially good – appears to be losing its rally impact on the SM, although the SM just seems to grind higher no matter what.

It feels like it’s been an awful long time since we’ve had a meaningful selloff – 10% or more. Almost as if an algo save comes in every 2-3% down to save everything. If the SM goes then it appears everything goes with it, economy, housing, etc. so the PPT just can’t let it go no matter what.

You and I are old enough to remember nasty corrections, I just haven’t seen any since 08-09′.

Nonetheless, I wouldn’t bet against you. I don’t think the Fed will cut .50 on Wednesday, but any cut might just be a selling opportunity in the SM and if they only cut .25, the SM could really punish them. Who knows?

This strongly suggests that the COT can be effectively used as a guide for speculators as the legend has long claimed, but that it should not be fully relied upon.

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:12 on September 14, 2019

I wanted to find out for myself. So I gathered all the historical price and COT data for the 5-years treasury market. I compared each week’s report to the next week’s rolling average (in order to best capture fluctuations and changes throughout the week). I then built four different kinds of classification models to predict whether prices would go up or down based off the changes of position of the various kinds of traders, and I found that the data led to correct predictions about 62% of the time across all four models. This strongly suggests that the COT can be effectively used as a guide for speculators as the legend has long claimed, but that it should not be fully relied upon. I encourage readers of this blog not to take my word for it, but to conduct their own analysis and see for themselves.

Towards Data Science

Sharing concepts, ideas, and codes.

Buygold=Remember-about 6 weeks ago I started messing with DUST? Same. deal now with. looking for

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:09 on September 14, 2019

an opportune time to take some stabs selling stock indexes…not sure if I’m gonna…but this couldn’t. be a more classic. set. up=

It’s the time. of the year

A. 10 yr bull mkt–possible triple top

also a “buy. the rumor sell the news” set up. with the China-Europe [&. others] tariff/trade issue

on the bull side. is free money, don’t fight. the FED. and the Prez doing all he can to support stocks

I wouldn’t need a 2008 crash…a. 20%. sell off like in late. 2018 would do the trick–after all, even the bulls, are preying for a. “healthy” correction before the next moon shot to 35K DOW….so that they could “scoop up bargains”…LOL

R6

Posted by Buygold @ 8:49 on September 14, 2019

So…if I’m reading you right, I get the sense that you think this third attempt at a new high in the stock market is probably going to fail?

It’s a big call but if you hit it right you make some serious bank, especially given the time of year.

SLV

Posted by Buygold @ 8:38 on September 14, 2019

Looks like a round trip back to $16 – just hoping it stops there.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV

I’ll be keeping an eye on SDOW-QID and other. SPX & NAZ bear etfs-

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:36 on September 14, 2019

SDOW

ProShares Trust – UltraPro Short Dow 30 .

SDOW’s third split took place on May 24, 2019. This was a 1 for 4 reverse split, meaning for each 4 shares of SDOW owned pre-split, the shareholder now owned 1 share. For example, a 62.5 share position pre-split, became a 15.625 share position following the split.

QID

ProShares Trust – UltraShort QQQ ETF (QID) has 3 splits in our QID split history database. .

QID’s third split took place on May 24, 2018. This was a 1 for 4 reverse split, meaning for each 4 shares of QID owned pre-split, the shareholder now owned 1 share. For example, a 50 share position pre-split, became a 12.5 share position following the split.

but wait, there’s more!

Posted by Buygold @ 8:35 on September 14, 2019

Image preview

Tidbits from Dad

Posted by Buygold @ 8:29 on September 14, 2019

Image preview

Sven’s a good ole boy

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:18 on September 14, 2019

Sven Henrich. @ Northman Trader 16h

September 18, 2007. Fed cuts rates by 50bp from 525bp to 475bp

$SPX peaks 3 weeks later on October 11, 2007 not bottoming until March 6, 2009 at

666.79. Next week FOMC announces their next decision on September 18, 2019.

https://twitter.com/northmantrader?lang=en

Silver Train

Posted by Maya @ 1:13 on September 14, 2019

rrflasher-copy

The westbound Empire Builder rolls
thru Portage with track orders.
https://railpictures.net/photo/708200/

Interesting gold commercials

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:50 on September 13, 2019

The Commitment of Traders Report

Silver

*The large specs reduced their long positions by 4,564 contracts and reduced their shorts by 2,670 contracts.

*The commercials decreased their longs by 2,217 contracts and reduced their shorts by 2,127 contracts.

*The small specs reduced their longs by 996 contracts and reduced their shorts by 2,980 contracts.

The commercials are net short 84,768 contracts.

Gold

*The large specs decreased their long positions by 31,271 contracts and reduced their shorts by 449 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 8,334 contracts and reduced their shorts by 23,786 contracts.

*The small specs reduced their longs by 2,107 contracts and decreased their shorts by 799 contracts.

The commercials are net short 305,611 contracts.

While there was some shift in gold by the cabal forces, JPM and its gang didn’t give up an inch in silver..

************************************************************

Oops! Almost. forgot!

Rah-Rah-Sis-Boom-Bah!!

Go. gold, go-!!

No buy signal on JNUG today–The great Ballinger nibbled today on slv calls

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:12 on September 13, 2019

Some perspective

Posted by ipso facto @ 17:17 on September 13, 2019

1 Year gold

When you compare a SLV 20 year Renko chart with JPM there is a distinct 180 degree correlation

Posted by Ororeef @ 17:10 on September 13, 2019

When you compare $GOLD 20 year renko chart with JPM there is NO correlation .

So its unmistakeable JPM has a contrarian correlation with Silver .

Is that proof of manipulation ?

COT’s – Given the crazy action of last week

Posted by Buygold @ 15:56 on September 13, 2019

I would’ve thought they’d be more exciting.

https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxlf.htm

Oh well. Another rough day. Never underestimate the devastation they can heap upon the pm sector.

Mission accomplished $1500 and $18 gone. Easy peazy.

Kudos to Mexico Mike. No doubt Gartman sold for another loss.

Maddog

Posted by ipso facto @ 15:54 on September 13, 2019

But wait … there’s more! 🙂

Feeling a little sore myself today.

Ipso facto

Posted by Maddog @ 15:36 on September 13, 2019

Izzat like The Emperor has no clothes?

More like a lot of people are not able to sit down…..

Buygold

Posted by ipso facto @ 15:07 on September 13, 2019

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen with interest rates with the central governments printing like maniacs. Classically at first the printing keeps interest rates low and then when inflation gets going people want a return for their money and rates go up. What were interest rates in Zimbabwe? Thousands of percent! They say they want around 2% inflation … they better watch out they may get a lot more!

Ya know ..It seems to me

Posted by Ororeef @ 15:05 on September 13, 2019

everything is going in reverse..Bill Clinton and RUBIN refinanced most of Americas debt from LONG TERM to Short term because Short term rates were lower and he could take credit for balancing the budget at the risk of having all our debt ,short term ,coming due tomorrow …Well tomorrow is here ..and now WE need to refinance all out debt to 100 years in the future with negative interest due 100 years from now.. Take that Bill Clinton and RUBIN !

The PRICE that will be paid is NO return on savings,NO return on Insurance company investments ,No return on Pension Investments and Pension promises will NOT be kept,Insurance companies will go broke,Retirees get NO return on savings to live on and force then to consume capital to live instead of earnings leading to bankrupt senior s..living retired on welfare….its no wonder drug companies Hospitals,and Doctors are trying to do them in…Thanks Clinton for getting that Ball rolling you fink ! You will go down in Infamy as the Guy that Fucked everybody,his country even himself ..

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