Bloomberg data shows 3Q19 S&P 500 company profits will likely expand by 1% to zero, which is significantly below the 3.3% forecast from last month. Estimates for 4Q19 are moving lower, could be below zero by year-end.
Trahan also suggests the Fed might be less inclined to prop up the stock market as it slams interest rates lower to act as a countercyclical buffer against a faltering economy. He warned that interest rates moving lower would also mean more depressed equity prices. He ended the piece by saying the upcoming earnings contraction is likely to kick off the next bear market.