OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-latest-coronavirus-stock-screamers-inovio-pharmaceuticals-co-diagnostics-2020-01-23

A husband and wife Chinese spy team were recently removed from a Level 4 Infectious Disease facility in Canada for sending pathogens to the Wuhan facility. The husband specialized in coronavirus research. #coronaviruschina #CoronaOutbreak https://t.co/f2MpCZgkHX

— 🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼 (@Jkylebass) January 25, 2020

🙂

I saw a ton of carnage back in 2001. Looking back, there’s so many names I would’ve loved to have owned right now. 🙂

So, with Gold at $10K and Silver at $150 we should be able to get a lot of cheap shares right? Course milk might be $20 a gallon..

because all you Oasis dwellers know I’m a renowned and faithful T/A believer. 🙂

The only thing I found of the stuff I watch on a daily basis that’s maybe a little oversold is GLD. The RSI is at 72, although it did correct from close to 90 just a couple of weeks ago. SLV only has an RSI of 59, so no worries there, most of that came yesterday.

In terms of the shares, the silver shares for the most part have plenty of room to run, some more than others – a lot more.

Looks like we are positioned pretty well for more upside next week, especially if the SM takes a dump.

If Von Greyerz ends up being right (which would be a first) and the SM loses 95% of it’s value, I have a buy target on AMZN of $100 and AAPL at $40.

So don’t let me forget. 🙂

WEEKLY VIX CHART

This Weekly VIX chart highlights the consolidation of volatility that set up in late 2017 and late 2019.  Pay special attention to how broadly the VIX spiked in early 2018.  This spike happened because of the consolidation of volatility near lower extremes over the past 16+ months.  Given the recent volatility throughout 2018 and 2019, a downside price move of a similar range would likely propel the VIX to levels above 40~45.  Price would need to collapse below our expected range in order for VIX to spike above 50.  A move of this nature would suggest a downside price move beyond 25% to 30% – pushing the SPY below $240.

Again, our research team believes this is an unconfirmed price pattern setup.  We want you to be aware of what we are seeing in the chart and be prepared if it confirms in the future.

DAILY PUT/CALL RATIO CHART

Another interesting aspect of this setup is the correlation to the PUT/CALL ratio on the chart below. Every instance of the Put/Call ratio that fell below 0.80 for an extended period of time (2014, 2018 and now), prompted a downside price reversion of -10% to -15%.  Additionally, each instance of this setup (2014 and 2018) prompted an extended period of price volatility and rotation.

In 2014, the initial downside price reversion prompted a -13% to -15% price correction followed by nearly 8 to 10 months of extended price rotation before finally entering a new bullish price trend in late 2016.  Additionally, in 2018, the initial downside price reversion event wiped out nearly 12% of the value on the initial downside price move from this event.  Subsequently, over the next 12+ months, a second downside price move wiped out over 20% of the value from the SPY.

The current setup suggests any potential downside price reversion resulting from this setup we are alerting you to could easily target -12% to -15% on an initial reversion event.  Ultimately, the rest of 2020 could result in a very volatile year of price rotation if history teaches us anything.

Remember, this is not a confirmed trading trigger.   This is a warning that a price and technical setup is occurring in the markets that may become of real value to you in the immediate future.  The combination of these three charts, the SPY, the VIX and the PUT/CALL ratio, should be enough for you to understand there are real risks of a price reversion event setting up in the markets right now.  All we need to confirm this setup would be for a broader market breakdown event to begin to take place. Then, we would watch what happens to the SPY near the $295 to $300 level.

January 21 – CNBC (Yun Li): “Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones said the stock market today is reminiscent of the latter stages of the bull market in 1999 that saw a giant surge that ultimately ended with the popping of the dot-com bubble. ‘We are just again in this craziest monetary and fiscal mix in history. It’s so explosive. It defies imagination,’ Jones said… ‘It reminds me a lot of the early ’99. In early ’99 we had 1.6% PCE, 2.3% CPI. We have the exact same metrics today.’ ‘The difference is fed funds were 4.75%; today it’s 1.62%. And back then we had budget surplus and we’ve got a 5% budget deficit,’ Jones added. ‘Crazy times.’”

Noland: I’m always fascinated when highly intelligent market professionals say peculiar things. I’m still not over Ray Dalio’s concept of “beautiful deleveraging” from some years back. When I first heard Prince’s comments, I thought immediately of the eminent American economist Irving Fisher and his infamous, “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau” – just days ahead of the great 1929 stock market crash.

But there is an analytical framework behind Prince’s view worthy of discussion. I’m with him completely when it comes to, “Cycles in growth are caused by the boom and bust in Credit.” In a historical context, I can accept “those expansions and contractions of Credit are largely driven by changes in monetary policy.” I agree “you’re not going to get a tightening of monetary policy.” Prince says central banks are “in a box,” while I prefer “trapped.”

But it is as if Mr. Prince is suggesting there is now some type of equilibrium condition that precludes a boom and bust dynamic. I would counter that central banks are locked in a position of administering extreme monetary stimulus, fueling a runaway boom that will end in a historic bust. Markets clearly expect ongoing aggressive stimulus (QE) from all the major global central banks.

And I don’t buy into the “rates are near zero because of stagnation” argument. The Fed cut rates three times in 2019 due to market fragility and the risk of a faltering Bubble – that had little to do with U.S. economic performance. Global rates are where they are because of acute global Bubble-related fragilities and resulting extreme monetary stimulus. Low global market yields (and negative real yields) are more a Bubble Dynamic than a reflection of deflationary forces. A historic boom/bust dynamic has global bond markets anticipating enormous prospective central bank bond purchases (QE).

The critical question: Can runaway booms descend into busts without a tightening of monetary policy? The answer seems a rather obvious “absolutely”. I don’t believe the Fed’s timid tightening measures in 1999 and early 2000 precipitated the bursting of the Internet and technology Bubble. The Fed was cutting rates aggressively into 2002, yet that didn’t arrest the bust in corporate Credit. I would strongly argue the Fed’s even more cautious 2006/2007 rate increases were not the catalyst for the bursting of the mortgage finance Bubble. In reality, in the face of strengthening Bubble Dynamics, financial conditions loosened significantly as the Fed tiptoed along with its so-called “tightening” cycle.

The Fed emerged from the 1994 tightening cycle recognizing that contemporary finance – with its hedge funds, speculative leverage, derivatives and Wall Street securitized finance and proprietary trading– carried an elemental propensity for excess and instability. That was effectively the end of Federal Reserve policy tightening cycles. From then on, it was cautious little “baby steps” to ensure the Fed wouldn’t upset the markets.

The “tech” and mortgage finance booms were left to inflate free from central bank restraint. Uncommonly painful busts were inevitable. Today’s most protracted all-encompassing global boom has not only been left free to inflate, central bankers continue their multi-trillion spending spree to pressure nonstop inflation. I do agree: when this fiasco runs its course, it certainly won’t be boom and bust “as we know it.”
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/01/weekly-commentary-coronavirus-and-end.html

along with bottled extracts of  alcohol free echinacea-astragulus—black elderberry—tablets of zinc and selenium—and Gary Nulls powdered-strawberry flavoed vitamin C—and b-complex tablets—also green tea exract

if this new virus was killed by Silver ,Colloidal Silver ?  …..just asking !

https://www.infowars.com/professor-warns-new-coronavirus-has-same-kill-rate-as-the-spanish-flu/

Steam into History
https://railpictures.net/photo/719722/

How dangerous is a coronavirus infection?

Usually coronavirus illnesses are fairly mild, affecting just the upper airway. But the new virus, as well as both SARS and MERS, are different. 

Those three types of betacoronaviruses can latch onto proteins studding the outside of lung cells, and penetrate much deeper into the airway than cold-causing coronaviruses, says Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, M.D. The 2019 version is “a disease that causes more lung disease than sniffles,” Fauci says.

Damage to the lungs can make the viruses deadly. In 2003 and 2004, SARS killed nearly 10 percent of the 8,096 people in 29 countries who fell ill. A total of 774 people died, according to the World Health Organization. 

MERS is even more deadly, claiming about 30 percent of people it infects. Unlike SARS, outbreaks of that virus are still simmering, Fauci says. Since 2012, MERS has caused 2,494 confirmed cases in 27 countries and killed 858 people. 

MERS can spread from person to person, and some “superspreaders” have passed the virus on to many others. Most famously, 186 people contracted MERS after one businessman unwittingly brought the virus to South Korea in 2015 and spread it to others. Another superspreader who caught MERS from that man passed the virus to 82 people over just two days while being treated in a hospital emergency room (SN: 7/8/16).

Right now, 2019-nCoV appears to be less virulent, with about a 4 percent mortality rate. But that number is still a moving target as more cases are diagnosed, Fauci says. As of January 23, the new coronavirus had infected more than 581 people, with about a quarter of those becoming seriously ill, according to the WHO. By January 24, the number of reported infections had risen to at least 900.

KEISER REPORT WITH EGON VON GREYERZ: DECADE OF FANTASY AND DECADENCE IS OVER

Egon von Greyerz – January 24, 2020

In this insightful interview, Max and Egon talk about the 2010s as a decade of fantasy and decadence.

Central bankers medicine has enabled the terminally ill patient to survive for much longer than he should have. But that sadly will soon come to an end.

Egon further warns: Stocks will be a complete carnage, particularly against real money like gold, equities are about to lose 95% of their value.

Also covered:

• The world’s largest asset bubble ever about to implode
• Risk for every single asset currently at a maximum
• Printed money has resulted in fake wealth across all asset classes
• How much longer can the world live on thin air?
• World debt will collapse under its own sheer weight
• Most listed companies not making profit
• Nasdaq risk today bigger than 2000
• Technically, markets look extremely vulnerable

if it were down an ole 600 or 800 pts Monday…dream on, R6740–I will not be surprised to see a laconic sunday nite open…nor will I be surprised to see a massacre if Asia futures are called down hard…

Boeing rescued The Dow from its worst levels after the machines read FAA comments as extremely positive…

A big buy programs in the last hour did their best to lift stocks…

VIX touched 16.00 intraday before fading…

Volatility, as measured by the volatility index  UVXY, accelerated.   UVXY closed at 11.72, up 8.92% on the day.

Yikes! Sure hope it doesn’t spread all over the world! Tough to stop when people are traveling by air constantly. And now they say that some people can carry it without fever as a symptom.

gtg