Loading ...You only need to understand 3 facts and have a modicum of numeracy to understand what the problem is. COVID-19 is:
*Very transmissable (R0 estimates vary but currently around 2.4-3.5 – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go…
*Spreads readily, even during the (up to 27-day) symptom-free incubation phase via droplets and aerosol (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go…
*Results in a serious or critical complication rate (requiring medical intervention) of around 20% (current John Hopkins University data)
Mathematical modelling suggests that should it gain a foothold here in the UK – quite possible given its transmission characteristics and the fact we have no mandatory restrictions or quarantine conditions on people arriving here from infected areas – we could expect up to 60% of the population to become infected within the first year.
Now some numbers:
Population of England = 60 million; 60% infection rate = 36 million, which is 3 million new cases per month
20% of these cases (600,000 per month) will require hospital intervention, and a quarter of these (150,000 per month) are likely to need critical care in ICU.
In England, there are 4084 intensive care beds (NHS data, Dec 2019), of which 75% are occupied. This leaves just over 1000 vacant ICU beds.
So for every 150 people needing intensive care (without which death will almost certainly occur), there will be one bed available and 149 will be sent home.
Even if the infection rate is just one tenth of what is modelled, these numbers will collapse the NHS in a few weeks.
That’s why it’s not ‘just flu’.