Loading ...Corbett Report was eye-opening, Got to check him out more often. Thanks!!!
fyi
fyiSeriously, what downside? If there was any, we would have seen it already. This a new world, a new system, a new reality where unlimited money printing and bailouts work. Old rules and logic no longer apply.
COTs
The Commitment of Traders ReportSilver
*The large specs reduced their long positions by 8,138 contracts and increased their shorts by 143 contracts.
*The commercials decreased their longs by 1,116 contracts and reduced their shorts by 11,083 contracts.
*The small specs reduced their longs by 705 contracts and increased their shorts by 981 contracts.
The commercials reduced their short positions to 44,680 contracts.
Gold
*The large specs increased their long positions by 523 contracts and reduced their shorts by 5,927 contracts.
*The commercials decreased their longs by 19,050 contracts and reduced their shorts by 8,936 contracts.
*The small specs reduced their longs by 1,505 contracts and reduced their shorts by 5,169 contracts.
The commercials increased their short positions to 311,823 contracts.
The most important COT news is that the JPM gang is exiting their short positions after butchering the silver price for nearly 9 years.
metalsguy, newtogold, captain, and anyone else with an open mind
I think it’s important to keep an open mind concerning all this hype to create fear and social breakdown in the world over this Covid-19 panic. From the start I have been asking myself what “they” are trying to divert our attention away from by throwing this virus scare into our faces. I think it has finally surfaced with James Corbet who IMO has pretty well covered all the bases…..with the two most likely candidates being monetary system changes that push an eventual one world digital currency, and mandatory vaccines for all. Also the social distancing is a great divide and conquer technique.
the fact that even this reliable manipulation mechanism failed recently is a sign of additional tectonic earthquakes to come in the global financial system.
In fact, I have not seen a single news site in the entire world, except for my own, mention the relentless increase in initial and maintenance margins in gold and silver futures contracts (the 100-oz gold futures contract and the 5000-oz silver futures contract) for the past two months, in a desperate attempt to knock long positions out of the game and thereby prevent an increasing amount of physical delivery requests.
Just recently, the CME raised margins yet again for 100-oz gold futures contracts to $9,185/$8,350 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a massive 86% increase in margins, and for 5000-oz silver futures contracts to $9.900/$9,000 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a gigantic 73% increase in margins, in just a couple months’ time. Normally, such relentless increases in initial/maintenance margins in gold futures markets is sufficient to prevent physical gold supply problems from afflicting futures markets, but the fact that even this reliable manipulation mechanism failed recently is a sign of additional tectonic earthquakes to come in the global financial system.
Re: silverngold
Thank you for your recent posts today: very informative!
King dollar
$6.5 trn,read it more carefully,they are trying to bail out the ESF which Kudlow let slip last Monday was broke at the presser.
Go back and look at the video if you don’t believe me,and now the USN has already having to quarantine carriers,no legs are left on the stool
that king dollar rested upon.
The great Mike Ballinger
Most markets found their footings last week with gold, silver, and the S&P all staging sharp reversals but then again, it was an easy call with the Fear-Greed index at “1”. Performance year-to-date has once again placed gold in the “outperformer” category (an event that must be driving White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow absolutely off his rocker). Gold has done exactly what it was supposed to do in times of turmoil and while silver has not, it is still performing better than the S&P year-to-date. Furthermore, the March 17th COT report has finally tilted in favour of a silver rally and it couldn’t happen at a more opportune time.
Of even greater significance is the performance of gold in non-U.S.-dollar currencies and no better one to show than the Canadian dollar gold price which, for Canuck investors, has been a veritable nugget of safe-haven alpha for the prescient portfolio manager.
If you are an American investor looking for a currency play, the gold miners whose production is primarily in Canada or Australia (or both) are enjoying the dual benefits of weak domestic currency and weak energy. This allows a huge boost in revenue while expenses drop and what falls out of the bottom is increased profits, the mother’s milk of all bull markets
It was two weeks ago that I published the two charts of GDX and GDXJ with the caption “Generational Buying Opportunity” and the lows of that following Monday were textbook bottoms with those purchases now serving to significantly repair the damage done by the silver takedown, an event I most surely did NOT expect. I elected to go “All-In” with the Senior Gold Miner ETF (GDX:US) not because of any self-congratulatory “analysis” but because I totally missed the March 16th lows in the junior ETF (GDXJ:US) under USD $20 because a) I was overly pessimistic about the opening price (I bid $16 – idiot) and b) I was terrified. Actually, I have learned over the decades that fighting the terror of a knife-catching bottom is, if successful, a 100% winning trade and no better example was the GDXJ that day.
The only problem I have right now with the gold and silver miners is this: Will they, as “stocks” be able to decouple from the algobot-driven attack dogs that are controlling the broad stock market. With gold back in the USD $1,600’s and with oil around USD $21, you could not get a more bullish fundamental backdrop for the gold producers but as we know, when you are up against a swarm of bid-destroying algo’s, fundamentals don’t count and therein lies the conundrum.
The stock market has bounced but as I have preached for years, there is always a retest and if one looks back to 2009-2011, the bailouts occurred three months before the actual bottom so I post the above chart not to frighten anyone but more as a reminder that the impact of this lockdown upon the global economy might be mild but it might also be severe and anyone that makes a prediction on his or her blog is only making a guess, because nobody has a clue, least of all me, as to the outcome. From the chart shown above, I think that as far as the PM’s and their public traded brethren are concerned, we are somewhere between “fear” and “capitulation”. However, will a deflationary wave swamp the golden vessel, or will the hyperinflationary policy moves be a surfer’s dream? Only time will tell.
As for silver, the biggest question that I get from subscribers and followers constantly is why the GSR (gold-to-silver ratio) exploded to 130 when all the rocket scientist “analysts” have pounded the table in abject certainty that silver is in “shortage”. How can something in shortage be allowed to trade at USD $14.50 in one market an $24.50 in another? How can retail websites be quoting one-ounce silver buffalos at USD $24.23? That is where the title of today’s missive comes in; this is “a tale of two markets”.
Years ago, I was at the Tinka Resources booth and ran into a Glencore executive and started to pitch him on TK’s Colquipucro silver deposit in Peru. The gentlemen listened to me patiently while I gave my version of “power close 101” and why this 30 million ounce open-pit could be Glencore’s for the bargain basement price of CAD $.50 per share. After I finished yapping, he looked me and said “All due respect, we really don’t have interest in your deposit. You see, we have slag heaps sitting idle from our copper-zinc operations that have five times that amount of silver.” The extent to which I was dumbfounded was exceeded only by the extent to which I was embarrassed and as I skulked away in near-mortal sheepishness, I thought to myself that I would never forget that conversation when thinking and talking about silver -which brings me to the point.
One look at the charts of copper and zinc and you can’t help but see a global economy under stress and you just know that with the prices of copper and zinc so depressed (and that was before COVID-19 showed up), the CEO’s of these base metal giants must be under huge pressure to augment and enhance their forward guidance any way possible. Why then would a Glencore or a BHP not mobilize those mountains of idle, slag-heap silver in order to bolster cash flow? There comes a point in any mining operation where the credit from bi-product ore becomes meaningful and that is either from a spike in the value of the bi-product or a crash in the primary metal price.
Mr.Copper @ 16:27
Yep… that’s why long ago I chose the ‘Roger Babson’ nom-deplume. As I said, I have one of Babson’s books inherited from my father who lived thru the depression years. Wanka remembered all this, and even in his later years here he addressed me as ‘RB’.
I have studied long-wave economics for years, and I always knew this day would come. I just didn’t know when. The financial wizards have forestalled the inevitable for longer than I ever thought possible, but… here we are. My life’s focus for years has to become prepared for what is to come. I’m situated right where I want to be and prepared.
James Corbett is a master researcher and has put this entire world crisis into perspective in this presentation. IMO the virus is only the cover for the real reason behind this crisis.
If you have not yet put all these crisis pieces together, Corbett will do it for you here!
@Maya, Also Known As @Roger Babson? Re Stock Market Crash 1929
parts:
“The optimism and the financial gains of the great bull market were shaken after a well-publicized early September prediction from financial expert Roger Babson that “a crash is coming, and it may be terrific”.[7] The initial September decline was thus called the “Babson Break” in the press. That was the start of the Great Crash, but until the severe phase of the crash in October, many investors regarded the September “Babson Break” as a “healthy correction” and buying opportunity. ”
“”Background:
The “Roaring Twenties“, the decade following World War I that led to the crash,[2] was a time of wealth and excess. Building on post-war optimism, rural Americans migrated to the cities in vast numbers throughout the decade with the hopes of finding a more prosperous life in the ever-growing expansion of America’s industrial sector.[3] While American cities prospered, however, the overproduction of agricultural produce created widespread financial despair among American farmers throughout the decade,[3] which was later blamed as one of the key factors that led to the 1929 stock market crash.””
Comment:
I didn’t bother reading this whole thing, I just wanted to check and see if the authors were biased or not to the truth. Or just dumb. The paragraph above is clear, the story accidently or purposely left out the real reasons that led the 1929 crash. Plus the boneheads blamed protectionism for making the crash worse. There is a lot more to this from before 1913 but.
The Federal Reserve (private special interest global entity) was created in 1913 (so USA can finance wars) and expanded the fake money supply with loans to do so, for WW I in 1917 and resulting roaring twenties. (funny we had the roaring ’20 again)
Like using too much sealant, (fake money) some of it (money) squashes into other areas and artificially jacks up prices. (stocks commodities etc) aka malinvestments. Some people that study economics or the financial system claim the USA was technically at that point actually a bankrupted country.
The Banks took in all the USA gold bullion, real money and gold backed certificates in 1934 at $19 and raised the gold price to $34 a 70%? devaluation of US Dollar, to inverse falling prices higher to stop deflation, (costs too low like oil today?) and prepare for excess money creation for WW II a few years later.
WW II was NOT what took the country out of depression. (widely held opinion) It was the banning and confiscation of Gold in ’34 to accommodate or allow a ’41 WW II. (which trimmed the herd)
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this flu led to another big natural herd trimming?? Prosperity would follow like after WWII. Job and business opportunities left behind by the departed? Excessive housing? Lower prices?
If they are unsuccessful, which is a very real possibility, the U.S. will enter into a “Great Depression” rather than just a “severe recession,” as the system clears trillions in debt.
The Debt End Game
The massive indulgence in debt has simply created a “credit-induced boom” which has now reached its inevitable conclusion. While the Federal Reserve believed that creating a “wealth effect” by suppressing interest rates to allow cheaper debt creation would repair the economic ills of the “Great Recession,” it only succeeded in creating an even bigger “debt bubble” a decade later.
“This unsustainable credit-sourced boom led to artificially stimulated borrowing, which pushed money into diminishing investment opportunities and widespread mal-investments. In 2007, we clearly saw it play out “real-time” in everything from sub-prime mortgages to derivative instruments, which were only for the purpose of milking the system of every potential penny regardless of the apparent underlying risk.”
In 2019, we saw it again in accelerated stock buybacks, low-quality debt issuance, debt-funded dividends, and speculative investments.
The debt bubble has now burst.
Here is the important point I made previously:
“When credit creation can no longer be sustained, the markets must clear the excesses before the next cycle can begin. It is only then, and must be allowed to happen, can resources be reallocated back towards more efficient uses. This is why all the efforts of Keynesian policies to stimulate growth in the economy have ultimately failed. Those fiscal and monetary policies, from TARP and QE, to tax cuts, only delay the clearing process. Ultimately, that delay only deepens the process when it begins.The biggest risk in the coming recession is the potential depth of that clearing process.”
This is why the Federal Reserve is throwing the “kitchen sink” at the credit markets to try and forestall the clearing process.
If they are unsuccessful, which is a very real possibility, the U.S. will enter into a “Great Depression” rather than just a “severe recession,” as the system clears trillions in debt.
As I warned previously:
“While we do have the ability to choose our future path, taking action today would require more economic pain and sacrifice than elected politicians are willing to inflict upon their constituents. This is why throughout the entirety of history, every empire collapsed eventually collapsed under the weight of its debt.Eventually, the opportunity to make tough choices for future prosperity will result in those choices being forced upon us.”
We will find out in a few months just how bad things will be.
But I am sure of one thing.
The Fed can’t fix what’s broken.
R640 – Are those your words?
“The Fed ran out of tricks.
It was known this would happen years ago.
It was realized with the repo market meltdown in September.
It’s why the “pandemic response plan” was rolled out.”
Wouldn’t surprise me a bit.
They’ve manufactured the problem.
We’ve seen the reaction.
So what will they roll out as the solution?
I’m asking about the financial solution now that they’ve broken the printing press. One world bank? Currency? Crypto Currency?
Check this out. Fake news.
I’ve seen these pictures that the media put out from Italy of all these coffins from the virus victims. Then someone noticed they saw the same picture “ from 2013. somewhere else. Turned out to be the same pictures
Avez-vous de l’or?
In a fantasy world, references to reality of long ago can only be imagined not extrapolated.
Charts longer than a few weeks can’t possibly apply to this circus unfolding before our very eyes in real time.
Lies are statements not fact.
Post modernism and math are not soul mates.
You can not borrow your way out of a debt black-hole.
The Fed ran out of tricks.
It was known this would happen years ago.
It was realized with the repo market meltdown in September.
It’s why the “pandemic response plan” was rolled out.
Strap in, it’s just beginning!
Captain Hook
I hope they wake up. If a demo got in hope they can see how the economy was with Trump prior to the virus shut down to now because if demos got in it would be that way all the time. How it would feel and the impact to their economy if they were suddenly out of work.
Buygold 10:48
When way up north we didn’t get much information other than what we heard on the local news. I wouldn’t be surprised though. As one said who lived among them that they didn’t know or care about Rodney they just wanted to loot.
I can see the same kinds of personality “ looters” trying to get across the borders in Greece right now and EU in general. Here too but just sneaker about it.
newtogold @ 11:49
Today’s bureaucrats are like the bourgeoisie of France some two hundred plus years ago.
They better hope the public remains stupified and doesn’t catch on to their act or it could go badly for them.
Certainly many who were asleep, now with no work and failing businesses, will quickly arrive at that point.
All I can say is ‘viva la revolution’.
Oh yes, I said that long ago now.
Cheers
Richard640 @ 10:46
The reason is stocks bounced so the ‘synthetic short squeeze’ (term first coined by Richard Russell) is having a temporary reprieve. Once the selling of stocks returns on a lasting basis (think after month end), so will the squeeze.
Foreigners with USD denominated debt are forced to buy to pay off the debt as the bubbles deflate.
Cheers
Why should I worry-I’ll just park my money here for this once in a lifetime opportunity
March 22 – Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar and Hema Parmar): “First they lost money. Now hedge funds want clients to risk even more cash on the bets that caused the pain. LMR Partners, Citadel, Baupost Group and Capital Four Management are trying to persuade clients to inject money into their funds after taking a hit in the coronavirus-fueled market turmoil. Capula Investment Management has had talks with some investors as it considers raising fresh capital, according to people familiar with the matter. Hedge funds are marketing this month’s sell-off as a once-in-a lifetime opportunity to take advantage of unprecedented price dislocations across stocks, bonds and commodities.”