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Consolidated COVID-19 Coronavirus Report From Investigative Health Journalist Bill Sardi
Hawaii Virus Stats from HDOH:
Total cases: 639 (2 newly reported)*
Hawai’i County: 76
Honolulu County: 415
Kaua’i County: 21
Maui County: 117†
Pending: 0
Residents diagnosed outside of Hawai‘i: 10
Required Hospitalization: 82‡
Hawaii deaths: 17
Released from Isolation: 572§
Cumulative totals as of 12:00pm, May 16, 2020
*AS A RESULT OF UPDATED INFORMATION, ONE CASE WAS REMOVED FROM THE COUNTS (FROM HAWAII COUNTY)
One new case in Honolulu, One new case on Big Island Hawaii county. We are still festering.
But in the long run…
On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
—Zero Hedge
Re: If the FED is all powerful, why are there ever crashes?
The people that own the Fed can make money whether there are crashes or not. If they happen to get on the wrong side of a trade they are bailed out by the taxpayer. Private gains; public losses! A few trillion dollars bailout in 2008 and more of the same now.
If the FED is all powerful, why are there ever crashes? This is how…
Derivatives are also playing a momentous role in market dynamics. During the boom, faith in central bank backstops promoted risk-taking. Why not revel in risk so long as derivative market “insurance” is so cheap and readily available? This whole notion of hedging market risk is a dangerous case of “fallacy of composition.” Individual market participants can hedge market risk, offloading exposure to a counter-party in the event of a significant market decline. However, it is not possible for much of the market to offload risk. There will be no one within the marketplace with the wherewithal to absorb such losses in a crisis environment.http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/05/weekly-commentary-global-bubbles-are.html
Much of the market protection these days is offered by sellers using dynamically-traded (“delta”) hedging strategies. If an institution purchases put options that strike below current market levels, the sellers of those puts will short futures or ETFs to hedge their rising exposures in the event of a declining market. As was witnessed in March, a market fall can quickly spiral into illiquidity and self-reinforcing dislocation – as writers of market protection flood the marketplace with sell orders (to hedge put option exposures that rise parabolically as strike prices are reached and these options trade “in the money”).
Buygold @ 9:52
Silver always moves last. The fact the silver stock charts look like they are tracing out a fifth wave right now co-oberates this possibility (likelihood?).
The good news is although a larger degree correction might be on the more immediate horizon, after complete, if we are lucky, we finally see a rip your face-off rally. Exactly what that means for silver depends on what it does to finish the present affair. If the GSR gets back below 100 soon that would be very bullish.
Let’s hope silver makes it up to $20ish here…that would portend very good things after a pullback from wherever it tops.
The bankers probably added 10 to 15k shorts to Comex silver this week to yesterday, so they have not gone away, but I am optimistic because it’s depressing not to be. (but I still watch the bastards)
Midnight Gardener @ 10:30 I am too busy for that but I will be around with occasional comments.
No worries.
Cheers all
Watching some nature show on BBC
It was about land mine clearing in Mozambique. They were using giant rats set up in harnesses for finding land mines. They’d hook the rat up to strings and do grid search and reward the rats with bananas when they found a mine. Then they’d blow it up. The rats are too light to set off a mine and seemed to enjoy it. This method is much faster than conventional searching with mine detectors.
Here they’re using them in Cambodia too.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-26/hero-rats-clearing-cambodias-landmines/9799632
Captain Hook- A question
Hello Captain:
From an old subscriber to your site and service. Would you ever post a chart here with your thoughts or is that a non starter. I remember the old days at the other site, “gold crow” or something, your charts were legendary. Your work on your site was great, always enjoyed those charts and your take on them.
Just curious if you would still post a chart.
All the best;
MG
USD Buygold
Good Morning!
My take on the USD being strong is not that surprising. Sure, if you understand it is a figment of a central bankers mind that has been sold to the masses, it seems like the “safest port in the storm”. But if you have a little understanding of fiat, like pretty much everyone here at the Tent, it is a source of constant wonder to see people pouring into it and not PMs.
For me, it is a clue as to how uneducated most people are and how good a job TPTB have done on misdirecting the general public. Most portfolios only have 1% invested in PMs and see them the same as 3D printing.
If nothing else, the herd will pour into the PMs if for no other reason than they are going up. ie, The public awareness phase of the PM bull market.
Anyway, just my thought this am.
Cheers
MG
Morning Captain
Even the COT’s bear out what you say.
The commercials got quite a bit shorter while the funds and everyone else covered as of Tuesday. The Commercials sold their longs in the hope of spooking the market, and did spook the funds into covering but just a little. Volume appears to be drying up – my take anyway.
Seems like the funds and everyone else in the futures market is tired of getting their asses kicked as they only added 703 long contracts. Hopefully they didn’t add more after the action on Friday.
Buygold–they say don’t fight the FED…and I agree…yet I always wonder how, then, do crashes
recessions and depressions occur…if all the FED has to do is launch a few ket strokes that makes babys’ boo-boo all better…??
R640
Seems like in the old days – prior to 2009 – and in a real market, the stock market would be susceptible to a crash of at least 32%.
Anymore though it’s hard to imagine that the Fed with their backstop, PPT, and all that money sloshing around, that the SM won’t inflate with everything else, including necessities like food.
Energy might be done for awhile, but eventually I think even gasoline will spike.
The only thing that continues to surprise is the strength of the dollar.
5-16–Credit Bubble Bulletin=There will be no one within the marketplace with the wherewithal to absorb such losses in a crisis environment
Let’s start with the markets. So, U.S. equities have diverged dramatically from underlying fundamentals. Most believe this is simply the marketplace peering over the valley to the reemergence of growth once the economy moves past the pandemic. More plausible analysis focuses on the securities price impact from unprecedented monetary inflation.
Federal Reserve Assets surged $213bn last week to a record $6.934 TN, pushing the 10-week gain to $2.693 TN. M2 “money supply” (with a week’s lag) expanded another $199bn, with a 10-week rise of $2.257 TN. Institutional Money Fund Assets (not included in M2) added $15bn, boosting its 10-week expansion to $961bn.
There is clearly ample monetary fuel to push equities higher in the short-term. Yet our analysis must also factor in the Market Structure that evolved over a most protracted Bubble period. In particular, powerful speculative Bubble Dynamics fundamentally altered market perceptions and mechanisms. Assorted trend-following strategies supplanted traditional investment analysis. Algorithmic trading changed market behavior. The massive ETF complex fostered trend-following and performance chasing strategies. Negative fundamentals notwithstanding, “FOMO” (Fear of Missing Out) plays a profound role in today’s highly speculative market backdrop. Sustaining a vigorous speculative market dynamic was one cost of the Fed’s hasty and massive market bailout.
Derivatives are also playing a momentous role in market dynamics. During the boom, faith in central bank backstops promoted risk-taking. Why not revel in risk so long as derivative market “insurance” is so cheap and readily available? This whole notion of hedging market risk is a dangerous case of “fallacy of composition.” Individual market participants can hedge market risk, offloading exposure to a counter-party in the event of a significant market decline. However, it is not possible for much of the market to offload risk. =.
Maya @ 18:46
That’s sounds right. Because the site content is quite left leaning now.
No way that’s Drudge. So he sold because he’s disgusted.
That was a large part of the reason I folded my site.
Buygold — you are exactly right.
Silver would have been up $5 yesterday if SLV did not provide an easy alternative for the dead heads in the institutional community.
They will get their’s one day too — they will be out of a job due to their complicity / laziness.
Cheers
Great volume in SLV yesterday
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV
Too bad there’s no silver in that fund.
Nevertheless, even with yesterday’s move it still hasn’t breached its 200 dma – amazing.
The Transport average was down a 100 points on Friday
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A Wall Street expert lays out how the stock market’s ‘downright terrifying’ surge within this crisis may be laying the groundwork for another 32% crash
“When a new bull market kicks off, high-beta cyclicals, like transportation stocks and financials, usually enjoy upside explosions more powerful than the S&P 500‘s, but that’s not (yet) been the case in this rally,” Doug Ramsey said in a recent note. -
There is a stark contrast between the stock market’s fierce rally and economic uncertainty.
- Sectors of the stock market that do well during economic upswings are not keeping up with their historical scorecards during this rally.
- Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer of the Leuthold Group, said their underperformance showed stocks have not yet fully reflected the economy’s pain.
- Click here for more BI Prime stories.
The gulf between the stock market’s performance and the economic reality on the ground widened after the historically bad jobs reportreleased on Friday.
It is possible to rationalize this gap by noting the market is forward-looking by nature. And in this instance, investors are looking ahead to a world in which there’s widespread treatment for the coronavirus.
But the ongoing rally is not being led by sectors that traditionally move in lockstep with the economy. In other words, when the stock market is truly reflecting a rapid turnaround for the economy, these so-called cyclical sectors are normally in front.
The fact that they are not leading raises red flags. Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer of the Leuthold Group, said it was “downright terrifying” that some sectors historically tethered to the early stages of a recovery were being left behind.
“When a new bull market kicks off, high-beta cyclicals, like transportation stocks and financials, usually enjoy upside explosions more powerful than the S&P 500‘s, but that’s not (yet) been the case in this rally,” Ramsey said in a recent note.
He said the Dow transports have not performed shabbily during this bear-market rally: They gained 29% as the S&P 500 climbed 30% from its recent low. However, these returns pale in comparison to prior bear recoveries: Transports gained nearly 60% in 1987 and 2009 as the S&P 500 rallied 30%.
One might conclude that this time is different because the transports include American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and other companies directly affected by lockdowns.
But Ramsey did not analyze them in isolation: Financials are also lagging behind. Only once during the past five bull markets — in 1987 — did the sector lag the S&P 500 during its initial bounce from the lows. It contributed about half the S&P 500’s 30% rally this time around.
The final laggard Ramsey flagged was small caps that do most of their business domestically.
During every bull market since 1987, their Russell 2000 benchmark had gained at least 40% by the time the S&P 500 was up 30%, according to Ramsey. The small-cap index gained 30% in the similar period last month.
Ramsey’s concern about the small-cap cohort is the viability of its cash flows. He estimated that about one-third of them were losing money even before the shock arrived.
‘The stock market punishment doesn’t fit the economic crime’
With the relative underperformance of transports, small caps, and financials in mind, it’s worth noting that technology stocks are the big leaders of this rally. Mega caps like Amazon and Facebook are benefiting from the need to work and connect remotely.
“Beyond that increasingly crowded trend, though, the economically defensive groups are performing far better than they ‘should’ be if a new bull market is really underway,” Ramsey said. “In fact, the bounce in the stodgy Dow Jones Utility Average cleared the +30% mark in half the time needed by the S&P 500!”
The resilience of defensive sectors, combined with the lagging behind of cyclicals, diminishes the odds that a new bull market has begun, Ramsey said.
“In short, the stock market punishment doesn’t fit the economic crime,” he said. “We expect it eventually will.”
Ramsey went a step further to envision what the catch-up may look like through a valuation lens. On an equal-weighted basis, the median S&P 500 stock is still historically expensive based on five metrics, including the price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios.
“If the median S&P 500 stock traded down to the average valuation seen at the last three bear market bottoms, it would have to decline another 46% from April 30th levels,” Ramsey said.
He added: “If we play along and assume that valuations bottom at the ‘richest’ levels ever seen at a bear market low, there’s still 32% downside remaining in the median S&P 500 stock.”
Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 crashing to 2,400
- US stock markets have shown weakness over the last few trading sessions. After crashing in March, US stock markets recovered in April. So far, the markets are down slightly for May.
- Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 crashing to 2,400. The S&P 500 was near 3,000 earlier this week but didn’t hold that level.
US stock markets versus economic reality
US stock markets have got detached from economic reality. Eventually, markets adjust themselves over the long term. Legendary value investor Warren Buffett isn’t sitting on a $137 billion cash pile without a reason. While we might ignore the subtle warning from Buffett, the disconnect between US stock markets and the economy hasn’t been this stark in recent times
Is a US stock market crash coming?
Several fund managers have been warning about a crash in US stock markets. Paul Tudor Jones and Jeffrey Gundlach expect US stock markets to retest their March lows and form a double bottom. The S&P 500 fell as low as 2,191 on March 23. The Dow Jones Index fell to a low of 18,213 the same day. At one point, the Dow Jones crash erased all of the returns under Trump’s presidency.
Similarly, some might see the S&P 500’s failure to move above the 200-day moving average as a bearish indicator. Now, Goldman Sachs expects the US stock market to crash.
Ororeef–great point-it looks like every pullback is a buy in PMs=”in anticipation of a coming inflationary supernova”=Fed will soon have to go for round 2 and spark a new market crash, one which it then uses as an alibi for the next massive liquidity injection.
Goldman Spots A Huge Problem For The Fed
Ironically, this also means that an end to the coronavirus crisis is the worst possible thing that could happen to a world that is now habituated to helicopter money and virtually unlimited handouts, which however need a state of perpetual crisis.
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“Once there is an end to the crisis in sight, they will be less and less willing to provide support and it will fall more on the street to absorb paper,” said Mediolanum money manager Charles Diebel, who’s adding bond steepeners in anticipation of a coming inflationary supernova.
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His conclusion: “That means the market needs to come up with about one trillion dollars to pay for those securities over the next month.” Which, of course, is a euphemism because we all know who in the market needs to come up with one trillion dollar – the only one who literally prints money: the Federal Reserve.
Conveniently, Goldman’s argument allows us to recycle our conclusion from two days ago, in which we said that here is the layman’s version of what was just said: “the Fed has flooded the system with liquidity… and it is not enough, because the way helicopter money works, is that liquidity supply (the Fed), and liquidity demand (Treasury via debt issuance) go hand in hand, and periods of too much supply, as was the cash with the Fed’s massive QE in late March and early April, are promptly followed by periods of dramatic liquidity demand, such as the next month when $1 trillion in liquidity will be drained to fund the US government “money helicopter.”
Goldman’s own calculations suggest that the shortfall net of the Fed’s ongoing QE tapering could be as much as $1.6 trillion.
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As a result, Powell faces a two-fold problem: since the Fed chair has taken negative rates off the table, Powell has no choice but too boost QE again, and unleash another firehose of debt monetizing liquidity in the financial system. However, any such reversal to the Fed’s current posture of shrinking QE will be met with howls of rage, especially among what’s left of the conservative political establishment. Which means that, just like in March when the Fed used the first pandemic-induced market crash to unleash unlimited QE, the Fed will soon have to go for round 2 and spark a new market crash, one which it then uses as an alibi for the next massive liquidity injection. Failing to do that, watch as the dollar takes off as markets sniff out that another major dollar squeeze is imminent. And since this will accelerate the liquidity crunch.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-spots-huge-problem-fed
If you think Bonds and TREASURY’s are safe ! They will owe it to you yes ! BUT
technically not a default…but they can and will extend the lifE and PAYBACK WELL INTO THE FUTURE ..3 MONTH TREASURYS CAN BECOME 1YEAR TREAS,FIVE YEAR TREASURIES CAN BECOME 10 YEAR TREAS ..What happens then is an immediate drop in resale value to compensate for the TIME value of money ..They will be able to pay you back with inflated currency ,with lower purchasing Power..
Whats the solution ? GOLD…..!!!
