Loading ...My question is: what happens next?
To start with, Trump could gracefully concede. However, we all know that won’t happen. Trump isn’t graceful (ever) and I’ve never once seen him concede anything. For much of my childhood, he was bankrupt and it never slowed him down—if anything, having his back against the wall made him stronger. For Trump, this is a minor setback and he intends to win.
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Next, we’re going to see a lot of litigation as ballots are counted, some are rejected and accusations of fraud are tossed about. It will be highly partisan and volatile. Each step along the way is bound to inflame and upset both sides. Expect riots and protests. Thus far, the victims have mostly been storefront windows. It seems inevitable that the two sides will eventually clash in the streets. However, that violence is just the prelude.
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What if Trump does not get what he wants? I have a strong sense that Trump isn’t going anywhere. If you know anything about how Trump negotiates, he always starts with a very unreasonable ask and then walks it down. In this instance, he has multiple nuclear options to choose from. There’s also a chance that events could overtake Trump depending on what his own supporters do. In summary, I can see multiple event-paths over the next few weeks, many of them are not mutually exclusive and most of them are not favorable to equity markets. We haven’t had a true seccession crisis in America in a very long time – the market certainly isn’t prepared for it. If anything, the market is dreaming of yet another round of stimulus, which certainly isn’t coming until we know who’s in charge.
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