You both make sense. But this is a very complicated puzzle. It seems to me like the system is trying to deflate, faster than the excess money creation can keep things inflated.
Because not enough money is going where it needs to go. Private sector small business profits, then to the small business employees, so high school graduates, and young people with unlimited wants and needs can pay high taxes and plenty left over for savings.
Like it was before 1970 when our businesses did NOT have foreign competition, we made everything here, and we had a budget surplus in 1969 before all the smelly Toyotas, Hondas Sonys Shoes Sox Under ware and ratchet sets and can openers started coming in. I noticed it first started between ’64 and ’66.
Like I posted after the 2008 crash, and Bernie Madoff getting caught, “If you were getting away with something, for a very long time, you better stop before you get caught.”
Well, Bernie was the first, and the Fed might be the last victim of their own making. I see them going for broke. Throttle up, nothing to lose. Point of no return going down the runway.
So the most important question in my mind, is if the end game starts unfolding, and everybody is cashing out, where to put the money? And how much time to do it. Real estate? Dollars? Gold Silver?
Sometimes before a bankruptcy the debtor enjoys himself, he’s resigned, he knows its the end, no hope, so enjoys spending the money that is supposed to go to suppliers and vendors etc. Then after the bankruptcy, they change names and have a fresh new start.
I know a guy that wasn’t paying his mtg for 6 years. He was buying silver coins and treating himself to his hobbies etc, and ended up getting a loan and buying a house. Wouldn’t it ironic if the new US Dollar gained enormous value, and ended up to be the best receptacle.