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Steaming the Lehigh Gorge
https://railpictures.net/photo/754653/
FWIW
Iran Says “New Understanding” Reached In Vienna Nuclear Talks
Iran’s risky ‘counter-pressure’ campaign appears to be working. A mere day after the Islamic Republic announced obtaining 60% enriched uranium, there’s talk of rapid “progress” made Saturday, according to the latest out of Vienna:
Talks on Iran’s contentious nuclear program have reportedly made progress, despite Tehran’s announcement that it was increasing uranium-enrichment levels closer to weapons-grade levels.
…”Progress has been made in a far-from-easy task. We need now more detailed work,” European Union envoy Enrique Mora said after the April 17 talks.
Chinese envoy Wang Qun said that “all parties have agreed to further pick up their pace in subsequent days by engaging in more extensive, substantive work on sanctions-lifting, as well as other relevant issues.”
The Iranian side has further indicated the crucial phase of drafting the text for reviving the JCPOA nuclear deal can now start
What is critical are the steep increases in margin debt before the selloffs.
While we don’t know how much total stock market leverage there is, we can look at margin debt as a measure of the trend. And the trend has reached whopper proportions. History shows that a big surge in margin balances preceded – and perhaps was a precondition for – the biggest stock market declines:
In a chart like this that covers over two decades, the long-term increases in the absolute dollar amounts are not critical since the purchasing power of the dollar with regards to stocks has dropped. What is critical are the steep increases in margin debt before the selloffs.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/17/stock-market-leverage-in-la-la-land-rises-to-historic-wtf-highs/
@ipso facto re China Following USA Reversal Confirmation.
This all fits, China being the new USA. Let them be the worlds free police man. Let them be the next global turkey. They can afford it now. Next they’ll have global reserve currency status instead of the US Dollar. Then they can RAM the Yuan value much higher, and start importing all their needs mathematically cheaper, from the USA and other countries.
In other wards, THEY will be off shoring manufacturing jobs TO the USA for a change. (this could take 30 more years) THEY will muzzle THEIR manufacturers with environmental regulations, AND give tax incentives to manufacturing to encourage moving jobs or production off shore to the USA Japan and Europe.
China will rotate into a retail sales and service, of artificially cheap imported products. Chinese people will do good being able to buy cheap imports and sell at high profits so they can absorb each others, and their countries accumulated wealth, rather than producing things that create wealth. As their wages fall, and domestic businesses have to cut corners to compete, THEIR profits will fall, leading to inadequate tax receipts and a growing national debt like here.
If I was a manufacturing businessman living in China today? I would sell my business early on while the value is still high and ready to fall. Then start opening retail stores and malls. Also get in early on green related jobs that are tax payer subsidized.
China like a crop. Now ready to be harvested. Just like us after 1970, 50 years ago. The beginning of their “wealth build up”. Our wealth build up for later harvest started in 1913 and ended in 1970.
You’re welcome to the tar baby!
Report: China may send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan after US troops leave
Report: China may send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan after US troops leave
Credit crises tend to advance at a glacial pace – until something suddenly triggers an avalanche
Friday, April 16, 2021
by Doug Noland
Such a spectacular Credit boom is vulnerable to waning growth momentum. Arguably, the ongoing wild Credit inflation rests on the market premise Beijing support underpins the entire system. As such, China’s now colossal shadowy Credit apparatus collapses without confidence in Beijing’s implicit and explicit backing.
The entire edifice has become “too big to fail” – which markets have viewed in nothing but the most positive light. There’s troubled Huarong and the other vulnerable state-owned AMCs. The solvency of China’s fragile multi-Trillion “small” banking sector has been an issue. Solvency is also a concern for a few Trillion dollars of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) and other local government debt. A tremendous amount is riding on Beijing’s shoulders.
Many believe the “great financial crisis” could have been avoided if only Lehman Brothers had been bailed out. Ben Bernanke and others are convinced the Great Depression was the result of a negligent Federal Reserve failing to print sufficient money to recapitalize the banking system. Dr. Bernanke’s flawed doctrine unleashed the greatest runaway global monetary inflation in history.
Weekly Commentary: Huarong
Credit crises tend to advance at a glacial pace – until something suddenly triggers an avalanche
The Bloomberg guest analyst suggested actual Chinese bank non-performing assets could be 15 to 20% of assets (versus about 2% reported) – which implies a problem approaching $10 TN. And with Bank Loans expanding an unprecedented $4.2 TN over the past 15 months, it’s a fair bet the problem loan issue is poised to get a lot worse. It’s worth repeating the “Terminal Phase” Bubble Dynamic, whereby a rapid rise of Credit of deteriorating quality ensures a parabolic surge in systemic risk.
Such a spectacular Credit boom is vulnerable to waning growth momentum. Arguably, the ongoing wild Credit inflation rests on the market premise Beijing support underpins the entire system. As such, China’s now colossal shadowy Credit apparatus collapses without confidence in Beijing’s implicit and explicit backing.
The entire edifice has become “too big to fail” – which markets have viewed in nothing but the most positive light. There’s troubled Huarong and the other vulnerable state-owned AMCs. The solvency of China’s fragile multi-Trillion “small” banking sector has been an issue. Solvency is also a concern for a few Trillion dollars of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) and other local government debt. A tremendous amount is riding on Beijing’s shoulders.
Many believe the “great financial crisis” could have been avoided if only Lehman Brothers had been bailed out. Ben Bernanke and others are convinced the Great Depression was the result of a negligent Federal Reserve failing to print sufficient money to recapitalize the banking system. Dr. Bernanke’s flawed doctrine unleashed the greatest runaway global monetary inflation in history.
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/04/weekly-commentary-huarong.html
