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what happens to the value of cryptocurrencies???
( poof! )
what happens to the value of gold (or silver)??
Re Common Alleged Benefit Of Investment In The USA From Abroad.
I was just talking to my son about that this morning. My view was that investors do it to MAKE money, make a profit from where they invest. So its more like a short term gain, the “investment” but later, a monetary drain when the profits roll in.
However, if a foreign business man invests in a manufacturing business or factory in the USA, to produce goods sold overseas, THAT would be a positive cash flow situation for the USA as a whole.
Hi pict
I’d be surprised if China backed the yuan with gold. It would be a brilliant move to take investment out of the US and bring it to China, but right now they can print paper backed by nothing and still get real goods for phony fiat without any backing.
That being said, the first country to back their currency with gold, wins the game.
Buygold
Good Morning. When and if $CNY becomes backed by Au we will be on a different playing field. BTC would flood into $CNY and goose the gold price by proxy the way I see it.
Buygold re: BTC
Good call!
Morning pict
I see Bitcoin is getting crushed this weekend. I said last week I thought the Coinbase IPO might mark the top in Bitcoin and maybe even the stock market for awhile.
Agree, hold the line and hopefully some of that money coming out will find its way into real money – gold and silver.
BTC
These cryptos are way more unstable than Au/Ag IMHO. Hold the line.
FWIW
Iran Says “New Understanding” Reached In Vienna Nuclear Talks
Iran’s risky ‘counter-pressure’ campaign appears to be working. A mere day after the Islamic Republic announced obtaining 60% enriched uranium, there’s talk of rapid “progress” made Saturday, according to the latest out of Vienna:
Talks on Iran’s contentious nuclear program have reportedly made progress, despite Tehran’s announcement that it was increasing uranium-enrichment levels closer to weapons-grade levels.
…”Progress has been made in a far-from-easy task. We need now more detailed work,” European Union envoy Enrique Mora said after the April 17 talks.
Chinese envoy Wang Qun said that “all parties have agreed to further pick up their pace in subsequent days by engaging in more extensive, substantive work on sanctions-lifting, as well as other relevant issues.”
The Iranian side has further indicated the crucial phase of drafting the text for reviving the JCPOA nuclear deal can now start
What is critical are the steep increases in margin debt before the selloffs.
While we don’t know how much total stock market leverage there is, we can look at margin debt as a measure of the trend. And the trend has reached whopper proportions. History shows that a big surge in margin balances preceded – and perhaps was a precondition for – the biggest stock market declines:
In a chart like this that covers over two decades, the long-term increases in the absolute dollar amounts are not critical since the purchasing power of the dollar with regards to stocks has dropped. What is critical are the steep increases in margin debt before the selloffs.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/17/stock-market-leverage-in-la-la-land-rises-to-historic-wtf-highs/
@ipso facto re China Following USA Reversal Confirmation.
This all fits, China being the new USA. Let them be the worlds free police man. Let them be the next global turkey. They can afford it now. Next they’ll have global reserve currency status instead of the US Dollar. Then they can RAM the Yuan value much higher, and start importing all their needs mathematically cheaper, from the USA and other countries.
In other wards, THEY will be off shoring manufacturing jobs TO the USA for a change. (this could take 30 more years) THEY will muzzle THEIR manufacturers with environmental regulations, AND give tax incentives to manufacturing to encourage moving jobs or production off shore to the USA Japan and Europe.
China will rotate into a retail sales and service, of artificially cheap imported products. Chinese people will do good being able to buy cheap imports and sell at high profits so they can absorb each others, and their countries accumulated wealth, rather than producing things that create wealth. As their wages fall, and domestic businesses have to cut corners to compete, THEIR profits will fall, leading to inadequate tax receipts and a growing national debt like here.
If I was a manufacturing businessman living in China today? I would sell my business early on while the value is still high and ready to fall. Then start opening retail stores and malls. Also get in early on green related jobs that are tax payer subsidized.
China like a crop. Now ready to be harvested. Just like us after 1970, 50 years ago. The beginning of their “wealth build up”. Our wealth build up for later harvest started in 1913 and ended in 1970.
You’re welcome to the tar baby!
Report: China may send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan after US troops leave
Report: China may send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan after US troops leave
Credit crises tend to advance at a glacial pace – until something suddenly triggers an avalanche
Friday, April 16, 2021
by Doug Noland
Such a spectacular Credit boom is vulnerable to waning growth momentum. Arguably, the ongoing wild Credit inflation rests on the market premise Beijing support underpins the entire system. As such, China’s now colossal shadowy Credit apparatus collapses without confidence in Beijing’s implicit and explicit backing.
The entire edifice has become “too big to fail” – which markets have viewed in nothing but the most positive light. There’s troubled Huarong and the other vulnerable state-owned AMCs. The solvency of China’s fragile multi-Trillion “small” banking sector has been an issue. Solvency is also a concern for a few Trillion dollars of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) and other local government debt. A tremendous amount is riding on Beijing’s shoulders.
Many believe the “great financial crisis” could have been avoided if only Lehman Brothers had been bailed out. Ben Bernanke and others are convinced the Great Depression was the result of a negligent Federal Reserve failing to print sufficient money to recapitalize the banking system. Dr. Bernanke’s flawed doctrine unleashed the greatest runaway global monetary inflation in history.
Weekly Commentary: Huarong
Credit crises tend to advance at a glacial pace – until something suddenly triggers an avalanche
The Bloomberg guest analyst suggested actual Chinese bank non-performing assets could be 15 to 20% of assets (versus about 2% reported) – which implies a problem approaching $10 TN. And with Bank Loans expanding an unprecedented $4.2 TN over the past 15 months, it’s a fair bet the problem loan issue is poised to get a lot worse. It’s worth repeating the “Terminal Phase” Bubble Dynamic, whereby a rapid rise of Credit of deteriorating quality ensures a parabolic surge in systemic risk.
Such a spectacular Credit boom is vulnerable to waning growth momentum. Arguably, the ongoing wild Credit inflation rests on the market premise Beijing support underpins the entire system. As such, China’s now colossal shadowy Credit apparatus collapses without confidence in Beijing’s implicit and explicit backing.
The entire edifice has become “too big to fail” – which markets have viewed in nothing but the most positive light. There’s troubled Huarong and the other vulnerable state-owned AMCs. The solvency of China’s fragile multi-Trillion “small” banking sector has been an issue. Solvency is also a concern for a few Trillion dollars of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) and other local government debt. A tremendous amount is riding on Beijing’s shoulders.
Many believe the “great financial crisis” could have been avoided if only Lehman Brothers had been bailed out. Ben Bernanke and others are convinced the Great Depression was the result of a negligent Federal Reserve failing to print sufficient money to recapitalize the banking system. Dr. Bernanke’s flawed doctrine unleashed the greatest runaway global monetary inflation in history.
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/04/weekly-commentary-huarong.html
RECAF, end of the second inning
and, recaf’s little pennystock stepchild, rnsff, with TWICE the percentage gain (79% !)
this one may be a long game. 🙂
Moriarty
Novo Stumbles, Market Panics
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty041621.html
@Maddog PS On The Gold Uptrend
By looking at the chart going back to mid 2018, it looks to me, like Gold got destabilized, or thrown off stride, when that stupid Chinese Imported Virus hit the news in early 2000.
That news psychologically scared the price down, then the newer news (inflation bailouts) later in the year psychologically drove the price way too high too soon, to up near $2100.
So in my view it took since the August high to the March low, 8 months to digest the situation. This chart with 1 week bars looks like a go long to me. Get back above that blue 50 dma line. See what you think.
@Maddog
Roger, let the scum play their games, they are the hard up losers in this game. Flailing with low rates and having to give out their fake money like candy bars. And a $30 trillion national debt? They must know the system is psychologically and physically very vulnerable.
Look, even with their games Gold is $1,778/oz and probably $150-$200 more to buy it. I’m happy with $1500. And on this latest little rally from that March double bottom, it may go for months, past $2,000 again, and if it does? The right miners will do great. Maybe even the not so right ones. I have one royalty miner, SAND, and it was way under water, and it came back real good, only 6% under.
Other royalties with divs?
OR WPM RGLD FNV MMX. No div royalty? ELYGF, EMX, MTA, SROYF
Mr.Copper
Tks for that ….I known u have the ‘smell’…..yup the way to be is positioned and sit tight…..Ororeef has it right…..
I have been in and out of various shares recently, at ever higher prices…missing chunks of the move….but I have lots more that just sits there doing nicely.
Today shud have been a huge day on the news, but the scum took all the gloss off, as usual…however they are short and the world is gonna be a buyer….and I need to rant somewhere…..or the cat gets it
Cheers.
@Maddog @Buygold Re Gold Trend
I’ve been feeling good about the trend, just with instinct and charts. I started buying back and adding to others. Especially the ones underwater. If its down 20% and you double the shares, you’re down only 10%, and the average is a discount for the price paid.
I bought back the DRD and the BTG. Bought some HL, double my IAG shares. AG and CDE are my biggest positions. If Palladium keeps going I’ll probably inch back in to the SBSW in a few minutes.
Is anybody doing anything?? Lets hear it.