Loading ...Could Siberia be a Greater Prize than the South China Sea for China?
Washington DC 16 May 2022
Russia’s spectacular failure in Ukraine has transformed China’s strategic options, for the better. Whereas Xi appeared ready to tandem-invade Taiwan just as soon as the olympics and party congress were out of the way, opening a second front in a new global war that Washington would have struggled to resist, Xi now has some important lessons from which to draw in reassessing his next moves. Why grasp at a porcupine when a big fat much despised sloth has fallen asleep on your doorstep? Unlike Taiwan, Siberia is not protected by a moat, is no longer protected by a major military force, is not likely to gain much international sympathy if attacked (smart balancers might even encourage/support such a move, or at a minimum look away), is vastly superior to Taiwan in terms of resources, is population scarce, already infiltrated by significant numbers of loyal Han Chinese, and the PRC arguably has as much claim to sovereignty over Siberia as it does over the South China Sea. Compared to Taiwan, Siberia is fecund, plump, low hanging strategic fruit.
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