You make good points about the USD and inflation.
The only thing the dollar is strong against is a basket of other worthless fiat currency. It is down against real goods and could very well lead to deflation. I can’t tell how this will resolve itself whether inflation or deflation.
I think they have slammed on the economic breaks, and April / May things have slowed dramatically. Lumber was one of the early commodities to rise. When supply finally catches demand, it could spurn deflation?
“The market is trying to determine where the new price equilibrium compared to slowing demand and increased supply.”