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North Pole, Alaska
https://railpictures.net/photo/807509/
IPSO – Thanks for posting that Alisdair MacLeod analysis
Logical and realistic in my view , though not cheery for our future as Americans .
We have benefitted greatly from the global acceptance of the petrodollar , but our industrial might was lost because of reliance on imports , as Mr. Copper has pointed out .
I was named after an uncle by that name which translates from Scots Gaelic to Alexander MacLeod .
He died very young , barely in his 20’s – not uncommon a century ago .
GLD
Looking at the chart of GLD, we had a selloff last year at almost the exact same time in early February. It took about a week to bottom out before we proceeded to rally almost $300 to (almost to $2100).
Hoping this plays out the same way as last year. The scary thing is that we’ve already rallied 12 weeks, which is the longest duration in any rally since Covid. Hard to believe it’s been 12 weeks already.
Where do we go from here? Higher highs or do we rollover and flop?
Always a guessing game with pm’s, the rig makes it tough.
Good article … Alasdair Macleod
snip
It is the consequences for the euro of a renewed battle over Ukraine that threaten to finally undo American influence in Europe, and therefore the future of both NATO and the EU. When the ground freezes enough in Eastern Ukraine for tank warfare (perhaps within weeks) a new conflict will begin — unless a pre-battle missile attack by Russia on Ukraine’s supply lines hasn’t already commenced by then. Anticipating the uncertainty that follows, energy prices are bound to rise again. On 24 February 2021, when Russia commenced its “special operations” the price of gold was $1902. By 9 March, it had risen to $2070. All other commodity prices from base metals to raw materials and food soared. There’s no reason to think it will be different this time.
The consequences for the alliance’s financial markets are potentially devastating. Kiss goodbye to transient inflation and interest rate moderation. Say hello to soaring bond yields, collapsing equity markets, bankrupt banking systems including the central banks themselves, and debt traps for both governments and overleveraged businesses. Fiat currencies will teeter on the precipice of collapse. A new phase in this war will threaten to destabilise the western alliance, but not Russia and China whose economies are not beholden to deflating financial sector bubbles.
There’s little doubt that the euro is particularly vulnerable to the consequences of a new military escalation in Ukraine and the effects it is bound to have on producer and consumer prices in the Eurozone. The euro is the vol-au-vent of fiat currencies, a currency at risk which demonstrably takes from Germany’s savers to fund the fiscally spendthrift PIGS. Rising interest rates and bond yields have done very little to offset increases in the general levels of producer and consumer prices. In the absence of a rapid defeat of Russia, a renewed escalation of the Ukrainian conflict is sure to drive those price levels even higher.
The ECB will be torn between the need to respond with yet higher interest rates for fear of losing control over them to market forces, and the consequences of permitting higher interest rates and bond yields for government finances. Not least, there is the threat to the solvency of the entire euro system.
The only solution, and even that is likely to be short-term, is for America to step back from the battle for Western Europe and recognise Russia’s right to protect the integrity of her borders. Negotiations leading to a settlement would have to be offered to Russia immediately if the euro is to be saved. Only then, the prospect of lower energy and commodity values feeding into producer and consumer prices would provide some relief for the euro system and the euro itself.