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Eureka!
https://railpictures.net/photo/809214/
Tend to agree with her unless there’s some sort of collapse in the USD. The market expects the Fed to CUT .25 bps one year from now
TD Doubles Down On 10Y Treasury Long In Anticipation Of Hard Landing
Reminding readers that she recently initiated a long 10y Treasury as she “thought that Fed pricing was appropriate at 5.25% and bond fund inflows were supportive”, since then both inflation and growth data has been very strong and the market is now pricing a Fed effective terminal rate of 5.5% (target FF rate of 5.7%) and the pricing of rate cuts has also declined” Misra writes. As a result of the recent powerful hawkish repricing, markets are now penciling in the first 25bp rate cut by Mar 2024 and a total of 170bp of cuts are priced in the 2y years after hikes end (down from 220bp in mid-Jan). In addition, global rates have risen, putting upward pressure on term premium.
“we initiated only half the risk in our trade since we were worried about strong incoming data, and we double down on the position.”
The thesis is simple: the hawkish Fed is likely to take policy even more restrictive, “increasing the odds of a hard landing”, and thus a recession which sends yields across the curve sharply lower. Needless to say, strong data remains the biggest risk for the trade since a higher terminal rate will drag the 10y rate higher as well.”
Squeaked out a gain?
Left for a little and see we closed up a hair at the HOD in the HUI. I guess technically that’s the 4th day in a row we’ve managed to eeke out a gain.
Curious whether we get the usual beatdown after the jobs number or will we have that rare occasion when we soar on the news.
We caught a break today not getting hit considering the stronger dollar and rates – good to see. Going out on a limb, I think we have a big move either way after the numbers.
Maddog @ 14:36
Real estate not exactly liquid when the market goes south! I’d hate to own one of those half filled buildings (or less) with poor prospects of getting more tenants. The Mortgage Man never stops coming around.
Lots of BKs on the horizon.
Just Noticed, Gold And the Ten Year Rate Going Up Together, Since Feb 24th.
Even Dopey/Dollar is up a little the past few days. I think the Fed will have to go a lot higher with rates to kill their so called inflation outlook. I’m sure they are watching Gold re inflation. not wages they are way behind the curve. Oil gasoline nat gas etc are behind the curve lower too the past year.
So what inflation is left? Remember the everything bubble? Stocks Bonds and Real Estate? Stocks an bond prices are a little lower. Real estate? Rents Food? If they are higher its only because of inflation in Property Taxes.
How can the Fed fight Property tax inflation? Put them on the Futures Market. LOL.
ipso facto
Re Blackstone that is the problem with treating real estate as a tradeable item …..it ain’t…it’s either great or quite…but when it goes South, nothing moves……
That said WFH is gonna have some serious impacts….I read HSBC in it’s London HQ, has 10 of it’s 45 stories locked up and is looking to move into smaller building of 40 % or less than the current one and that is down to WFH.
No volume, nothing day
Somehow, we are sort of hanging in there with the 10 yr up 8 bips to 4.08% and the USD 3/4%
I can’t bitch too much about today’s action yet.
I think tomorrow is make or break day.
Cracks … I just saw where … Credit Suisse Crashes To All Time Low After Boosting Deposit Rates To Reverse Bank Run
Blackstone Defaults On $562MM CMBS As It Keeps Blocking Investor Withdrawals From $71BN REIT
Now that soaring rates have burst the commercial real estate bubble, the carnage is coming fast and furious.
This morning Bloomberg reports that Wall Street’s largest commercial real estate landlord, private equity giant Blackstone, has defaulted on a €531 million ($562 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Sponda Oy, a Finnish landlord it acquired in 2018.
Not so good ………….. windmills and solar are not going to fix this
Power supply problems in the South African electric grid is starting to affect metal production at mines in the country.
This affects #gold, platinum group metals, chrome ore and manganese ore, zirconium, vanadium and titanium.
Lousy energy policy has consequences. 🤨 pic.twitter.com/ablyVGMHqr
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) March 1, 2023
I would also ask why? Eff Discover card
JUST IN: 🚨 🚨 🚨
For what purpose? To report to who? pic.twitter.com/NKTEBTFH5G
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) March 2, 2023
Buygold
“Headwater Gold” I don’t remember hearing about that one. You are right! There is a huge number of mining stocks.
So far, so good
HUI bounced off 220, I guess I’m saying there’s a chance…
Ipso
do you know anything about this little Headwater Gold? There’s a lot going on in Nevada.
There’s a ridiculous amount of mining stocks.
Where’s Captain Cook these days?
He hasn’t been around here for a long time. I would like to get his thoughts.
The battle for $1840 begins anew.
GFG Upsizes Private Placement Financing to C$4.2 Million
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gfg-upsizes-private-placement-financing-120000945.html
Moneta Gold Intersects 24.75 m @ 4.60 g/t Gold from Infill Drilling at Tower Gold and Provides Corporate Update
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moneta-gold-intersects-24-75-115000986.html
SCOTTIE RESOURCES INTERCEPTS 17.4 G/T GOLD OVER 6.57 METRES ON BLUEBERRY ZONE AND EXTENDS STRIKE LENGTH TO 1,550 M
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scottie-resources-intercepts-17-4-123000609.html
Labrador Gold Intersects 2.32 g/t Au Over 18.6 Metres at Big Vein
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labrador-gold-intersects-2-32-130000118.html
Fury Announces C$7 Million Financing
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fury-announces-c-7-million-131800389.html
River Valley Palladium Pre-Feasibility Study Update
https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/river-valley-palladium-pre-feasibility-study-update-fd871
Aftermath Silver Announces Expanded Mineral Resource Estimate for Berenguela Silver-Copper-Manganese Project, Peru
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/aftermath-silver-announces-expanded-mineral-resource
TNR Gold NSR Royalty Update; McEwen Mining’s Los Azules Copper, Gold & Silver Project – Close of ARS $30 Billion Investment by Stellantis
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/tnr-gold-nsr-royalty-update-mcewen-minings-los-azules
Altamira Gold Reports over 90% Gold Recoveries from Initial Metallurgical Tests on Drill Samples from the Maria Bonita Target, Cajueiro Project, Brazil
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/altamira-gold-reports-over-90-gold-recoveries-from
Beauce Gold Fields Recovers Large Gold Grains from a 4 km Long Glacial Drift Formation on the Emberton Property
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/beauce-gold-fields-recovers-large-gold-grains-from
Independence Gold Acquires Laidman Project, British Columbia and Provides an Update on the 3Ts Project
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/independence-gold-acquires-laidman-project-british
Blue Star Gold Outlines Strong Discovery Potential at its Nunavut Projects
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/blue-star-gold-outlines-strong-discovery-potential
Austin Gold Projects Update
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/austin-gold-projects-update-aa6e1
Prudent Minerals Independent Technical Report Discloses Exploration Target of up to 6.3 MT and Potential High Grades at its ABE Project
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/prudent-minerals-independent-technical-report-discloses
Altaley Mining Announces Proposed Name Change to Luca Mining Corp. and Debt Settlement Agreements
https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/altaley-mining-announces-proposed-name-change-to-luca
TomaGold announces results of geophysical work on its Obalski property
https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/tomagold-announces-results-of-geophysical-work-on-its
Almadex Provides Update on Projects, Partner Activities and Exploration Plans for 2023
https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/almadex-provides-update-on-projects-partner-activities
Mako to Satisfy Gold-Linked Loan Repayments to Sailfish in Silver
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/mako-to-satisfy-gold-linked-loan-repayments-to-sailfish
Graycliff Exploration Expands Property Package by Acquiring Lunge Project
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/graycliff-exploration-expands-property-package-by-acquiring
Orestone Continues to Refine Gold Copper Trend and Porphyry Drill Targets at Captain Property
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/orestone-continues-to-refine-gold-copper-trend-and
Emerita Intersects 46.6 M Grading 0.3 % Copper; 1.7 % Lead; 2.7 % Zinc; 4.21 g/t Gold, 84.4 g/t Silver and 32.0 M Grading 0.4 % Copper; 3.6 % Lead; 8.2 % Zinc; 1.9 g/t Gold, 119.7 g/t Silver at La Romanera Deposit
https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/emerita-intersects-466-m-grading-03-copper-17
Newpath Resources Inc. Provides Update on Its Northshore Gold Resource
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/newpath-resources-inc-provides-update-on-its-northshore
Headwater Gold Announces Additional High-Grade Assays from Spring Peak, Nevada Including a New High-Grade Vein Discovery
https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/headwater-gold-announces-additional-high-grade-assays
Rates gaining steam
10 yr now up 7 bips to 4.06%
USD up 1/2% now.
Just got jobless claims and they were “better than expected”. Usually not a big market mover but hitting the SM a bit and knocked gold back $4 for now.
Looks like the SM is in trouble again. Nasdaq down 1%.
Surprised we’re not getting hit harder.
10 yr. @ 4.02%
up a couple bips. I believe it’s up about a half point since the Fed meeting a couple weeks ago.
Gold (GLD) has come back to flat, SLV still down a half percent. Oil is up 1/2%, USD up 1/3%
Seems to we we’re lucky to be flat this am, although I expect the real fireworks to come tomorrow morning after the jobs report.
Mentioned in a previous post that I thought this would be THE year for pm’s. I don’t know why I’d think that, other than every year I believe the same thing. The setup looks great for pm’s right now, but the scum is still in the game and they may matter more than any fundamentals or technicals.
Hoping we’ve found the bottom.
Dollar on the move higher tonight
PM’s wobbly. SM futures in trouble. Looks a little stormy in scumland.
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