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The Chief
https://railpictures.net/photo/821014/

Nope …. interest rates will go higher long-term. Think double digits.

Life will get a lot harder. We will to some extent devolve into post hydrocarbon man.

No more cars. No more flying around. Life will get localized.

The mother weffers know this … but being spoiled a$$holes – they are trying to return to feudal times where lords live high while the surfs starve to death. (Communism is modern feudalism using modern monetary theory.)

All of the things they are attempting to impose on humanity will happen anyway once the mobility associated with cheap and plentiful hydrocarbons are gone.

So get local and be happy to have less but still be alive.

Oh and don’t forget to flip the bird at the mother weffers whenever you get a chance.

Cheers

Not sure I understand this part

“In fact, if you believe Steve St Angelo – that the oil supply bubble is about to pop (less supply, Higher prices?) – then rates have entered a secular bull market with oil (interest rates lower, higher prices for debt instruments?) – not that such an outcome will hurt PM’s in the long-term of course.”

TY out for a bit

Yes, but don’t put the cart before the horse.

First, we get the credit event – stocks fall (a lot) – then we see the idiots at the Fed react.

In the meantime, if there’s a crash in stocks (and bonds?) this fall – which is very possible given the situation – your shares could get cut in half from here.

Be careful as the Fed is going to have a hell of a time easing moving forward with all the supply issues that will plague commodities well into the future.

In fact, if you believe Steve St Angelo – that the oil supply bubble is about to pop – then rates have entered a secular bull market with oil – not that such an outcome will hurt PM’s in the long-term of course.

Gold (and silver?) will return as money in some (if not all) places.

Cheers

Thanks for that.

“solvency risk for a large swath of the banks through the roof”

That’s certainly true and if more banks fail and the SM takes a real nosedive then the Fed has no choice but to back off from it’s rate hikes, which should certainly help gold and the pm shares.

Cheers

I have pared back considerably this year.

Don’t have much in the shares anyway.

Most PM shares have already taken a beating, so losses should be muted measured against the yardsticks from here, but there’s still some room to fall as market participants (gold bugs) have remained stupid stuck in their optimism given what has been said here today.

Most don’t think in these terms. They only see gold stocks as leveraged proxies for the metals and are as greedy as the most crazed tech turd and think there’s a new bull market around every corner. (Some even think they have the moral high ground.)

They are about to get a lesson they forgot about from 2008.

Can you sell now?

You can probably scale out a bit depending on the stock.

But you probably still want to hold a smallish core of good large to mids as the metal prices should not fall much from here with solvency risk for a large swath of the banks through the roof (you don’t see it in credit spreads yet because of the rig).

The juniors could get killed from here.

Don’t know what to say about them except – good luck.

Hope they hit the mother load.

They will need it.

I’ll be happy when the mining shares “act consistently with the commodity prices.” The rig will fail at some point and gold-silver will go much higher … and so will the shares. I’ve seen it in the past and there’s no reason it can’t happen again.

As you mentioned the availability of funding is a prime factor with the juniors who have no income. If they hit big they are likely to get that funding even if conditions are tight.

Do you hold any mining shares? I was of the impression that you do. As far as safety goes then I’ll agree that physical is much safer than the shares and that one should have physical first.

Cheers

If you are talking about PM stocks, I’m afraid you are in for a great deal of disappointment.

The term ‘gold stocks’ has two words … ‘gold’ and ‘stocks’.

The question then arises, are ‘gold stocks’ more a function of gold, or do they operate more like stocks – subject to macro forces.

Now I am not going to go into all the details here (why should I), but suffice it to say, that in the end, when macro conditions are favorable for the group, they will act consistently with the commodity prices (gold, silver, etc); and when the opposite is true, they can and do more often than not act more like stocks.

Considering ‘stocks’ are just rolling over in a C wave that could be as devastating as that witnessed between 1930 and 1931, I wouldn’t count on much for a while yet.

And as for juniors, which are more a function of credit risk in contracting liquidity conditions than anything else – well – I will leave it to you to fill in the blanks.

Cheers mate

Soon. Such a terrible word. Pretty much nothing comes in my time, so who knows?

The dollar needs to crumble, but nothing to crumble against except oil. I see that the paper players have come in to tamp down oil a little bit. Seems they’re going to have to get a lot more active if they want to stop oil.

A shame what happens in our little pm sector.

If our gains are commensurate with our beatings and losses then we’re gonna be happy campers. I hope it’s soon!

It will absolutely crush the middle class, as if it hasn’t already.

Sad and disgusting that we have people that are so truly evil.

have no idea what they have unleashed upon the public .

…or maybe (likely) that is their plan – to gut Constitutional America .

IMHO

All energy went up in price . My employer , a nuclear generating plant ‘seller’ had enticed utility companies to buy our plants by promising to supply nuclear fuel (which we manufactured , as well) at bargain prices into the future . The cost of uranium went up with the price of oil . My employer used ‘Force Majeur’ claims to renege on those contracts…and promptly was sued for breach of contract by the utilities whose hands were tied , preventing them from passing on the cost increases to the consumer public by public utilities commissions . The litigation dragged on for years – a lawyers dream !

It appears the PNAC – project for the new American Century has finally backfired. The goal was to destabilize the region so that Israel could reign supreme has failed and had the opposite effect.

The US is weak now on all fronts, especially with oil. Our demise is obvious to the rest of the world.

We are near the end of the final washout. When they are done accumulating, we’re going to see a rise of epic proportions.
The when is impossible to know though it seems.

TSLA and NFLX strong. NVDA flat and rising. The market is beyond nuts.

Iran, Oman, Kingdom of Saudi & UAE in negotiation to form a maritime coalition

– China is mediating.

– Funny! UAE withdrew from US maritime coalition 2 months ago. So it basically left US to join Iran! 😂

🇨🇳🇮🇷🇦🇪🇸🇦🇴🇲 pic.twitter.com/oRk45eFMdN

— 𝐄𝐡𝐬𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐚𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐣𝐚𝐝 🇮🇷🇵🇸 (@Safarnejad_IR) June 2, 2023

Dollars rushing out of bonds, artificially creating demand for dollars which will then be immediately divested into hard assets, possibly certain stocks.

Miners crushed because energy is everything to their costs. I suppose this lasts until dollar demand collapses or pm’s rise, have to think pm’s will also soak up some of those dollars. The paper riggers will continue until it’s clear physical is drying up.
Don’t know how long that takes but hard to imagine it will last too much longer.

Thanks for the post on RFK and oil Ipso.

They don't want you to know this.

RFK explains how BlackRock, State-street and Vanguard own a huge portion of the S&P 500 companies

They are also purchasing large numbers of homes in the USA. RFK Jr claims that by 2030 they could own 60% of the single family homes in America.… pic.twitter.com/68izrJ9ONg

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 5, 2023

https://schrts.co/tziaYGEK

Oil Soars To New 2023 High After Saudis, Russia Shock With Extended, Expanded Production Cut

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-soars-new-2023-high-after-saudis-russia-surprise-extended-expanded-production-cut

Support Trump and a few non-RINO GOP candidates but feel sold down the river by the GOP Establishment types .
Rove’s ‘big tent’ philosophy tries to out-do the left, apparently .
I came to the USA on a student visa , left after graduation to return to my native Canada , had certain specialized engineering skills which qualified me to return and be granted a green card residency . My career had me traveling from USA to assignments in Europe , Asia and South America for weeks on end with vitually no notice . It was frequently the case that management would come to my desk in mid-afternoon to tell me to go home , pack , and board a flight the next morning for an overseas flight to my next assignment .
As a result , even though I met the residency requirement , I could never be sure of being in the USA for short notice mandatory citizenship interviews leading to naturalization . As a result , I was a non-voting taxpayer for decades until I retired . I am now a naturalized citizen who deeply resents handouts by Biden et al to illegal immigrants who have no intent to honor our laws , nor appreciate the Constitution and Bill of Rights . Sadly , our ‘representatives’ in DC all too often also fail to respect the Constitutional Rights , let alone the wishes of citizen taxpayers .

because upside gap’s always do.

Bounced off $21.50, but for how long is the question.

SM appears to be in some trouble, but no clue if they’ll actually let it fall.

COT’s and weakness in the shares told the tale.