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What I’m saying is that in the past when Au got smashed , it was hit by paper and as most of the buyers were paper, the shorts could happily sell, as the buyers never asked for delivery…..Now the bulk of the buyers are asking for delivery, as they have to give real metal to their buyers……so the scum cannot afford to smash the mkt , as they fear the buyers will say thankyou…here are my delivery instructions……
I hasten to add this is pure supposition, on my part…..but I can’t see any other reason, to explain why Gold is almost immune to the scums games…..If it was one or more huge buyers, then they would probably use the smashes to buy……these buyers just keep paying up…..which is far more likely to be individuals.
AEM really is a well run company. Their earnings are pretty much always on track. Stock up $1 AH tonight, but I expect they’ll do better tomorrow. Hopefully they’ll give the sector a boost.
maddog – I see, so basically you’re saying that the little guys are just taking supply off the market and making it more difficult for the paper players to get their hands on deliverable metal.
The bond market is a little troubling right now eh?
I have some long corn and bean positions. You probably are more interested in wheat. The charts for mine are problematic in the degree of drop and the reluctance to have a normal harvest low. I keep my grain charts using excel for charting so can’t post now as outside on my ipad.
but the oscillators I built for the grains are indicating a more significant rally than usual into the new year.
We are also entering into a multi-year drought cycle. Thompson drought cycle.
Is I can round some of my recent tentative positions. My bigger positions were put on in mid September when most pm stocks broke above a basing pattern. I often trade out somewhat or entirely when the charts look like it is a good idea and then back in when a breakout from a base happens. Oh plenty of mistakes have been made. Just dig out my posted charts from years ago. Some lulu’s. Still that is how I invest and it is usually successful. Those September purchases are up enough that a small correction doesn’t matter.
aurum
looks like i can soon exit my TLT blunder with either a small loss or perhaps none.
I am talking about normal people buying a few ounces or maybe just half an ounce ….as a coin or small ingot etc….but when it comes to China and u have say 100,000 people buying 1 oz…that is 3 tonnes….1 million is 30 tonnes and remember 1 million people in China is 6 one hundreds of a percent of the population !!!!!…….1 percent is 1.5 million….and if they all buy 1 oz we are talking 47 tonnes !!!!!
The last thing a small mkt like PM’s needed, which was/is short as hell….was 1.5 billion Chinese to turn up…..and we are not counting any Indians or Indonesians !!!
What brought these numbers to my thinking, was hearing an Indian Cricketer, who was commentating on the game …he apologised for leaving early , as he had to do a highlights programme commentary for an Indian TV channel….he was asked how big was the audience for his programme and bear in mind this was only a highlights programme …he said @ 90 million !!!!!!!
When you say hundreds of thousands taking delivery, I’m not sure what you mean and how that works. How does that effect the paper markets? Are the buyers on the Shanghai exchange and is the Shanghai getting supply from the LBMA or Crimex? In other words, if the someone is in the paper markets of the LBMA and demanding delivery, then it makes sense that supply would come out of the LBMA, but if it’s small buyers not in the paper market, why would it matter?
I maybe misspoke, I knew they were dumping paper in the other metals, I’m just not sure to what end. Silver seems obvious. Palladium, I guess now that we know they are charging 33% premiums, yikes, would seem they have troubles.
No short covering today. Maybe in the dollar, rates finished up @ 4.29% after being down to 4.22%. There has to be some trouble brewing in that market.
The HUI is holding very well. Maybe a little short covering in SLV into the close?
This was nothing more than an orchestrated attack on the sector. Except as Maddog mentioned, maybe they can’t do anything with gold other than slow its ascent?
I had to be prescreened and got to go into a secret Space Force military base out here last spring. The level of professionalism was out of this world. A very smart and talented group of people, from 4 different countries all working in unison in proper military attire according to country. I was able to get into 3 base security levels deep and it’s no joke. No phones, electronics When I was there they were getting ready for the Starship second flight’s telemetry. Most of the families and friends on tour had no clue what the Starship was, so I gave people a quick few sentences of catch up. I was able to stand in a giant geodesic dome and see the spy satellite tracking hardware and tour the most impressive bases I could have ever dreamed up. The operational rooms were freaking intense and live! But anyways these guys are watching real time satellites around the world and they know anything that flies with a heat signature. We could only go into rooms with special permission first. Many closed doors, tons of crazy noises that sounded like huge servers rooms. I used to do server buildings for Fed Ex tracking and know the sound. I could only speculate what I was hearing and there’s alot of things I just didn’t understand. And that’s probably the way it should be. But I will say the USA military is still in good hands from my perspective.
Today was the first budget of the UK’s new government…it is going over like a lead Zeppelin…….What could be good trades are selling sterling against anything in the Currencies and shorting UK Gilts…the mkts/dealers always like to have a mkt to kick….especially when there are lots of alternatives, to spread against….
The UK mkts may well become that mkt to kick as this new government, is epically dumb……the new Chancellor has never worked in a real job/business…she did a spell as a junior and then worked for 2 yrs in the complaints dept of a bank….
As a proxy of the real demand. It shows a nice cross section of physical buying that we had to rely dealers to give information in the past. They like Costco b/c they know they won’t get ripped off in the mail and are probably safe exiting the store too. There’s alot of risks and it cuts down on the negatives.
I was scrolling political and turned on speaker of one that disappeared when I moved the phone that said a government official leaked the passwords on Colorado’s voting machines. So why the H are they online? Talking about what the military can do but we can’t even secure our elections, push back on riots or secure our borders.
The Ukes are pretty good on the Drones….but what I hear is the Russkies are better and they have worked out how to nullify most of the Wests best kit……judging by the way the war is going , that makes sense….I also think Vlad is holding back to see who wins, in the hope Trump gets in and the war can be ended….
They are not selling the other metals to get Phys…they are selling paper in the other metals …which is knocking them back…because the buyers are not taking phys in AG, Pall and Plat or not much anyway…..
The problem they have with Gold is that in the past , they could smash Crimex and the london mkt with paper shorts…..or in the case of london roll the sales out into the future…what I think is going on now is that the buyers are small consumers, who want the physical metal, to go under the bed ……but although they are only small amounts….there are 100’s of thousands of them….and because they want phys the sellers have to have it…..In the past as I said the sellers never delivered…..because the buyers never asked…now it is a whole new game…..
At some point the buyers may move over to get some Ag and Platand Pall….then the shorts are really ‘effed.
Seems clear to me that gold is now being treated as currency. Silver still being lumped in with industrial.
The biggest part of this phony raid was conducted after the weaker than expected GDP numbers.
Adogsbody – agree with you, even volume on SLV probably won’t be average. This is orchestrated to mask the dollar weakness and Fed intervention in the bond market. The Fed is going to have to intervene a lot more IMHO.
If I were Trump I would tell people this guy is the most dangerous man in America, why would you want him in so close? The father of derivatives with Blythe, man these are strange times.
Buygold- There’s nowhere to hide with drones, the war machine is crapping. It’s a huge paradigm shift. Yes, drones and terrorism in the future will eclipse all gun crimes. It’s so easy. They say Vlad is conscripting people from far away lands with huge sums of money, he accepts men up to the age of 60. They say these conscripts are not coming from St. Petersburg or Moscow, he can’t have unrest and all the smart people fleeing from his war. Another thing, his nuclear capabilities might all be fake, they say nukes need maintence 10 to 15 years max with the fuse or your screwed. It degrades, it has a shelf life. The US has spent billions maintaining theirs. He’ll probably resort to dirty bombs regardless. Russia knows if the nuke card is played, the US response will be good on delivery and their shit will be nuked hard.
Lastly, there’s the Starship factor. Starship will be able to deliver the largest payloads on earth. It’s going to be caught by the Chopsticks next. Starship opens the door to the Rod of God. Think kinetic bombardment from a pole. It fits in the payload bay and could easily destroy the Kremlin as much as a nuke bomb (if not more) and no fallout. Heard it here first. Game on
maddog – what you say makes sense, although I’m not sure how they get physical by beating the crap out of the other metals. Unless it’s a play to get those that are long all the metals to be forced to give up their long gold positions as well.
eeos – that’s all well and good until Vlad is backed into a corner where he has no other options but nuclear. In the meantime, over a million young men have likely died for what? So US politicians can launder money, hide their bioweapons facilities, payoff their military industrial complex donors, and large US corporations like Blackrock and others can pick up Ukranian assets for nothing? The US and EU are disgusting.
You’re right, you don’t want to face those drones, but you may have to, because this government won’t think twice about turning the military on our people. They’ve already given them approval to do it.
Hard to square that with the “stellar” bond auction yesterday.
In the video, Rafi talks about Goldman and how the volume of futures in the bond market is 10x what it was in 2021. So much so that the Repo market is getting drained of available cash to loan for new positions which means that the shorts will have to cover. He says this will cause problems for the SM because the hedge funds will have to sell other investments to cover those positions. He also said, metals will take a lesser hit.
It definitely isn’t short covering in the bond market now though. It’s wholesale dumping. The Fed better get moving again.
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