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Maddog 4:47 Aussie dollar.

Posted by ferrett @ 15:33 on January 16, 2025  

Not this time, methinks. There’s a reason for that precipitous fall – AUD was way overvalued and the fundamentals are still awful. Heavy reliance on China, huge green energy push rocketing electricity prices, inflation still hot (core inflation looks low, but state and federal govts have subsidised electricity with one off subsidies {more inflation!} such that we won’t be paying anything for over a year), unemployment still very low, housing still hot and much pressure for a cut in rates. The RBA is, of course, a non-political arm of the govt, but this is an election year. That last green candle looks to me like intervention, buying AUD to make it strong enough to justify a February rate cut. But the Aussie 10 year bond is hovering near its post GFC high – not a sign that rates are too high.

 

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.