There is, however, a very serious problem brewing: Systemic risk expands exponentially during the “Terminal Phase” of excess, as rising quantities of increasingly risky loans imperil the entire financial system. The past two years have seen extremely rapid (speculative “blow-off”) Credit growth in two particularly problematic sectors: lending against equities and apartments – both at inflated prices. There will come a point when the market begins to question the validity of Beijing’s banking system fortification. This type of waning confidence could initially manifest in the currency market.
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