I watch the tape all day and I can tell you the consensus among the aggressive speculators is still quite bullish going into the eye of the storm. The latest COT numbers evidence this statement.
So if stocks crack going into year-end, which is a distinct possibility because speculators are playing the seasonals — a year-end rally is guaranteed in their minds — and you have a recipe for an accident going into December — especially if the Fed tightens again because they need to keep the $ propped.
Time to be careful with the margin clerks warming up their dialingĀ / sell order fingers.
Cheers