Loading ...“At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading well above 86 and that has been the major reason for the weakness in gold and the disappointment in gold mining shares.
However, when you look at the strength in the U.S. dollar in technical terms, it is not only overbought, but technicians might note that it is way overextended as far as its relative strength and way above the Bollinger Band. If we look back at 2002, every time the U.S. dollar went above its Bollinger Band, and I believe that happened five times since then, it has quickly reversed itself and gone back to normal.
So I think the U.S. dollar is on its last legs in terms of this rally. You also have to pay attention to the current currency war that has been started with the euro, yen, Brazilian real, all pointing southward. This indicates a new currency war has begun and the U.S. dollar has been the primary beneficiary of that. But that past has shown that the U.S. dollar has only acted as a temporary refuge. And because the United States desperately needs to maintain its exports, the Fed will look to halt that dollar rally at some point.