I am not guessing about what the specs are doing. I check the ETF open interest put/call ratios every morning. As soon as they saw the $ start nosediving they’ve been buying calls on PM ETFs like drunken sailors.
The seasonality is good now too. Hopefully a shit-kicking in December here will get them to stop it…but I doubt it.
Probably won’t happen for another month or two until they realize seasonality is passing. Such an outcome could cause a seasonal inversion.
Common in mature markets with idiot/immature speculators busy blowing their brains out.
They don’t check what the other specs are doing.
Cheers