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1-30-2024. BLOOMBERG
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is famous for writing The Black Swan, but these days he’s warning of a white swan, a risk that rather than being rare is somewhat more probable—and in this case coming for America’s economy. Like an increasing number of economic observers, Taleb says the cause of this calamity-in-plain-sight is the federal budget deficit. He says it’s swelling by such an extent that it would take a miracle to duck the damage that’s on the way. And he’s not alone. Taleb joined former US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand in sounding the alarm over consequences stemming from exploding debt—let alone default—and what that could mean for the dollar’s global status. “So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they’re afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing…eventually you’re going to have a debt spiral,” Taleb said. “And a debt spiral is like a death spiral.” —David E. Rovella
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