No that’s when rates go down, in response to macro weakness.
And administered rates follow market rates (which of course means we don’t actually need parasitic central banks)
Like I said yesterday, look for a cycle top in September, basically in conjunction with all the BRICs related buying being done for a while ahead of the meetings in Fall. (and if the macro is under pressure)
The inverse head and shoulder’s patterns across the sector say don’t trade such a top, because it likely won’t last long, but what the hell do I know right now.
Breakouts could come first, with back-tests then, but again, what the hell do I know.
Just following the signals.
Cheers